Pembroke will be kingmaker in council battle

June will see voters head to the polls to elect new and returning candidates to Councils across Dublin.

South Dublin elects candidates onto Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council and Dún Laoghaire–Rathdown County Council, so regardless if you live closer to Bray or Temple Bar, or closer to Lucan than you are Sandymount, there is plenty in store for Dublin voters.

We begin our journey across Dublin’s many constituencies in Pembroke, home of one of the biggest success stories in modern Irish politics; the election of Hazel Chu.

Chu is a prime example of the Green wave that struck Ireland at the 2019 locals, with the first-time candidate storming home with over 33% of first preferences in a groundswell of support that foreshadowed the Greens’ best-ever performance at the 2020 general election.

Over the last 5 years, Chu has become one of the most high-profile Councillors in Ireland, served as Lord Mayor of Dublin, had a high-profile row with her party over a Seanad bid in 2022, and has spoken at length about the abuse aimed at her by online trolls.

While Chu may not receive 33% of first preferences this time, voters in Pembroke will most assuredly give Chu a 2nd term on Dublin City Council.

Pembroke also has a rising political star in the form of Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan, fresh off his selection as Fine Gael’s general election candidate in Dublin Bay South.

Like Chu, Geoghegan has somewhat of a national profile, with those who may not be in tune with Dublin City Councillors becoming aware of Geoghegan in his 2021 by-election battle in Dublin Bay South.

On that occasion, Geoghegan came 2nd to Labour’s Ivana Bacik, but considering that by-election campaign became something of a national talking point it never hurts to have a boosted media profile when going for re-election.

Fine Gael will run two candidates in Pembroke, with Dún Laoghaire Councillor Emma Blain looking to make the switch from one Council to another.

Dublin Bay South is typically regarded as a stronghold for Fine Gael, so getting two candidates elected in Pembroke would go a long way to reclaiming that.

Fianna Fáil will run young candidate Rory Hogan, who, if elected, would look to introduce a “young mayor” programme as seen in London.

Hogan stated that he wants to be a voice for young people should he be elected, but getting younger people to the polls is easier said than done.

Pembroke has been left without Sinn Féin representation since the South Dock constituency was carved away before the 2019 election, taking Chris Andrews with it.

Andrews’ impeccable performance in 2014 was a sign of Sinn Féin gathering momentum in Dublin, but the jury is still out if Sinn Féin can turn in that same performance in June.

When analysing local constituencies that exist within a larger Dáil constituency, looking at past results at a national level can help analysts piece together how voters may act at the ballot box.

While applying national polling trends to a national level isn’t advisable, as what motivates a voter at a national level is almost always different from a local level, it is more advisable to look at the demographics of a constituency when looking at Sinn Féin.

Pembroke isn’t usually considered Sinn Fein territory, with the likes of Fine Gael and the Greens the target demographic for this particular neck of the woods.

Pembroke can be categorised as one of the more middle-class constituencies in Dublin, so while the party has made efforts to win over that particular kind of voter (it quietly dropped any mention of a wealth tax and taxing corporations at a higher rate in their alternative budget) it would not be surprising if the party did not see the area as a priority and focused their efforts elsewhere.

Should Sinn Fein end up winning a seat in Pembroke in June however, that would be a sure sign that the party is on the way to a strong Dáil performance whenever the time comes.

At the time of writing, the party has not selected their candidate for the constituency (at least to our knowledge) but they can be expected to feature on the ballot.

Keeping on a left tact, Dermot Lacey will be running once again for Labour.

The seat is on the home turf of Ivana Bacik, so the party can be safe in the knowledge that Lacey, who just marked 30 years on Dublin City Council, will have a massive personal vote and support from people who may not necessarily put Labour as their first preference.

On the social progressive front, the Social Democrats will run first-time candidate Karen Hinkson-Deeney in the constituency.

As mentioned at the start, Chu is pretty much a lock to secure re-election but with a smaller mandate than last time as the support for the Greens that manifested in 2019 does not feel like it will happen again.

Chu’s reduced mandate means that as much as 10% of the vote is up for grabs, and considering that Chu has become a household name among Irish progressives her votes are there for the taking.

The Social Democrats will fancy their chances here, and securing votes or transfers from Chu will be key to victory here.

2024 will be the first time a Social Democrat has run in Pembroke, and this is the area they can be expected to poll reasonably well if not outright win in.

People Before Profit won a seat in 2014 when the constituency was known as Pembroke – South Dock, but that particular candidate, Sonya Stapleton ended up switching her affiliation to Independent in 2016, and the party candidate in 2019, Siomha Ni Aonghusa, picked up 4% of first preferences in 2019.

PBP did outpoll Sinn Féin here in 2019, by quite some margin (4% to 1.7%), so there may be an untapped well of voters here for the party.

With Pembroke being a 5-seater, we can assume that Chu, Geoghegan and most likely Lacey will be re-elected, so the real fun and games begin with the final two seats.

Pembroke is an area where each of the major parties has something to prove, but when it comes to the fine margins of securing control of Dublin City Council the residents of Pembroke may play a pivotal part in deciding that outcome.