SPORT: The contenders in the race for Sam

AS Dublin prepares to take on Westmeath in the Leinster Senior Final at Croke Park this Sunday, one of their former stars, VINNIE MURPHY, runs the rule over the teams he feels have the best chance of lifting the Sam Maguire Cup on the third Sunday in September.   

Dublin 

The loss of both Jack McCaffrey and especially Rory O’Carroll could have a devastating effect on Dublin this year.

The reasoning behind this is O’Carroll has been the best fullback in Ireland the last 5-6 years. He has yet to be beaten. He is the rock on which the defence was built. Without his aerial ability Dublin could potentially concede goals this year to all the other top teams as they are vulnerable to the long diagonal ball to a big target man (more so if two target men are placed there), think Messers Donaghy, Murphy and O’Shea. 

The loss of McCaffrey will not be as big as some may think. While he is indeed a great footballer, his departure may be a blessing in disguise as Jim Gavin may opt for a more defensive player as a replacement. I feel because of the departing O’Carroll, Gavin may have to do this. 

Further worry would be the mileage now on the clock of some of the best players ever to wear the sky blue. They have been at the top table now for 6-8 years without much of a break and add to this the success of Dublin clubs in the All Ireland Club Championship (four champions in the last nine years). Unless Gavin unearths at least 2-3 new starters the team could struggle.

After feasting on silverware over the last few years staleness and lack of hunger in players may take its toll. Dublin’s key players, Cluxton, O’Sullivan, Michael Darragh McAuley, Flynn, Brogan and Connolly are amongst the greatest players in Dublin’s history and it pains me to say it but most of them have started the steady decline that all sportspeople endure.  This year could be the last hurrah for some of them and if they sense and respond to that, Sam could still be in the capital in September. 

Kerry

They are similar to Dublin in that most of their key players are on the slide and they have a huge lack of pace from midfield and at the back.  However, they remain the biggest threat to Dublin as their tradition demands they leave no stone unturned in the quest for Sam. 

Kerry also learn more in defeat than any other county and this is the main reason for their success in the past.  Don’t be surprised to see them bringing Tommy Walsh back in before August and go with a twin towers approach, especially against Dublin. 

Having played football in Kerry I know that there is no end of talent in the county. If they harness a couple of new young bucks and galvanise the OAPs Donaghy, O’Se, Gooch, O’Mahony and fulltime footballer Darren O’Sullivan, they have the players and importantly the know-how to win All Irelands. 

I see them being very defensive this year and relying on the counter attack with their quality forwards to win games for them.  

Mayo 

Where to for Mayo? Firstly you have to admire them as even after some gut wrenching defeats they always come back for more. 

However, their perennial problems continue. They have what I call the “disease of me” – they have blamed everyone/thing else on losses in the past, from refereeing decisions to foul play of the opponents and more recently the managers. They haven’t accepted the fact that they haven’t been good enough to win it as a group yet!  They have gotten rid of managers in the past and never seem to go with the best choice. 

Horan brought them to within touching distance of Sam, but I thought he was very poor on the line in big games especially the game against Dublin where effectively Dublin played the last 15 minutes of the match with 13 men and Horan didn’t spot it. Neither did the players for that matter. 

I feel they missed a trick not getting in McStay and McHale. Mayo’s arrogance has been Roscommon’s gain.

Donegal

I think that Donegal over achieved in the last few years and they definitely have punched above their weight especially with McGuiness in charge. 

In terms of talent they are at best a top six team, but with great players like the Magees and McHughs and especially Murphy they will always make teams work to beat them.  Since Gallagher took the reins he has altered the ultra-defensive system and has allowed the player a little more freedom. 

They have found a real quality player in Odhrán Mac Niallais, who along with McBrearty, will cause any team trouble. 

For them to succeed in Croke Park especially they need Murphy at 14 and the ball to be played into him long, fast and often as he has the all round game to beat most defenders.  

It also means the other teams will have to leave at least two defenders on him which would allow Donegal to make use to the extra man while running the ball through the lines and they are probably the best hand passing team in the country.

Tyrone

Tyrone are an improving side but I feel winning Ulster is the maximum they can expect this year and a possible semi-final berth, but they are not quite ready to win the big one.

They can potentially beat any team on their day, but they would have to beat at least two big guns to win Sam. I think Tyrone’s time will come again in the next 2-3 years if they continue to improve and when the current crop of Dublin, Kerry and Mayo players’ ability levels drop due to retirements.

•Vinnie Murphy won an All Ireland senior medal with Dublin in 1995 and five Leinster senior medals.