Dublin Bay South drama brewing as Blain and O’Connell enter race

The election race in Dublin Bay South has seen a new twist.

Fine Gael Councillor Emma Blain has been drafted in as James Geoghegan’s running mate while former Fine Gael TD Kate O’Connell will run as an independent.

Fine Gael are looking to win back one of their former heartland constituencies, with Dublin Bay South going without a Fine Gael TD since Eoghan Murphy’s resignation in 2021 and subsequent loss of the seat to Labour’s Ivana Bacik.

Geoghegan was among the first politicians of any party to declare their general election candidacy all the way back in January, and has since become Lord Mayor of Dublin.

Geoghegan topped the poll in Pembroke in June’s local elections alongside Green councillor (and general election candidate) Hazel Chu.

Geoghegan secured 19.9% of first preferences in June, with Chu securing 16.8%.

Blain was elected alongside Geoghegan, and was around 200 votes off from being elected on the first count, ultimately being elected after securing 15.3% of first preferences.

Blain said “I am delighted to be asked by An Taoiseach, Simon Harris to contest the next general election as a candidate for Dublin Bay South.”

“As an experienced representative for Dublin Bay South, with over eight years at local government level and as an Irish Delegate at European level, on the Committee of the Regions, I am committed to advancing policies that will bring about meaningful change for everyone in Dublin Bay South.”

“I grew up in Rathmines, in the heart of the constituency and while I have seen many positive transformations in our community, I am acutely aware of the challenges that still remain.”

“If elected, I will be the voice that addresses the rising cost of childcare, ensures access to housing for those who need it most, brings about improvements to public spaces to promote better family life, encourages active transportation across our city, supports our local SMEs and continues to promote women’s healthcare.”

Fine Gael’s two-candidate strategy has been made more complicated by the addition of former TD Kate O’Connell into the race.

O’Connell was among Fine Gael’s casualties in the 2020 general election, losing her seat as fellow TD Eoghan Murphy also saw a major decline in his vote compared to 2016.

Murphy, who fought the 2020 general election as Minister for Housing, saw his share of the vote reduced from 16.5% in 2016 to 16%, while O’Connell’s share of the vote dropped from 13.6% to 11.7%.

In the aftermath, O’Connell said she lost her seat as a result of Murphy’s performance as Minister for Housing.

In the 2021 by-election, O’Connell didn’t seek out the by-election candidacy citing a lack of party support.

Geoghegan went on to become Fine Gael’s election candidate, losing to Bacik in July 2021.

Geoghegan’s past association with the anti-abortion party Renua (which involved him carrying out door-to-door surveys for the party following its launch in 2015) was cited as a factor in his loss to Bacik, a long-term abortion rights campaigner.

In the aftermath of the by-election loss, O’Connell’s past as an abortion rights campaigner was seen as a potential boon for the party in the constituency in the context of a by-election race, which has long been regarded as a Fine Gael stronghold.

O’Connell has since left Fine Gael, and will contest the general election as an independent.

The story, which was reported in the Sunday Independent, quoted O’Connell as saying “I want to win a seat and I believe looking at the lie of the land the best way to do that — and to be true to my values and my principles, the value and principles that I hold dear — is to run as an independent.”

O’Connell cited displeasure with the party’s usage of public finances as a factor in her running as an independent, along with residual animosity between her and the party.

In the aftermath of her 2020 general election loss, O’Connell said there was tension between her and former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.

Minister for Justice Helen McEntee confirmed that O’Connell was engaged with the party, but ultimately was not chosen to be the general election candidate.

“She wasn’t selected, she wasn’t chosen by the party. I wish her well. We have a fantastic candidate there who is now going to take her place,” McEntee told RTÉ.

The Dublin Bay South ballot will see 2020’s poll-topper Chris Andrews of Sinn Féin face off against Fianna Fáil’s justice spokesperson Jim O’Callaghan, Hazel Chu looking to hold onto Eamon Ryan’s seat, Ivana Bacik defending the seat she won in the 2021 by-election, and Social Democrats councillor Eoin Hayes looking to turn recent local electoral success for his party into a Dáil gain,