Dublin Mid-West election race heats up

The ballot paper for Dublin Mid-West is starting to fill up.

Fianna Fáil have selected councillor Shane Moynihan as their candidate, Greens have selected Jithin Ran, and Sinn Féin have selected incumbent TDs Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward.

They join Social Democrats councillor Eoin O Broin who was the first to declare their candidacy.

Moynihan won re-election in Palmerstown-Fonthill in June, building on his 2019 election victory.

Moynihan handily won re-election in June, increasing his share of the vote from 8.3% to 13.9%.

At the selection convention, Moynihan saw off competition from veteran councillor Trevor Gilligan and former TD Conor Lenihan.

The upcoming general election won’t be the first time Moynihan has faced the wider electorate of Dublin Mid-West, as he was Fianna Fáil’s general election candidate in the November 2019 by-election.

On that occasion, Sinn Fein’s Mark Ward won after seeing off future Fine Gael Minister Emer Higgins. 

In 2019, Moynihan attained 11.8% of first preferences which is nominally enough to get a candidate elected in a normal election, but not in a by-election.

With Dublin Mid-West being bumped up to a five-seater at the next general election, winning back a seat in Dublin Mid-West is seen as a crucial part of Fianna Fáil’s stated ambition to remain in government.

Should Moynihan attract anywhere near that same level of support in a general election context, a Dáil seat would be all but secured. 

Fianna Fáil lost the seat held by John Curran in the 2020 general election, which saw Sinn Fein’s Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward, Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins and People Before Profit’s Gino Kenny elected.

In 2020, Curran saw his share of the vote drop to 10.8%, a drop from the 16.2% he received in 2016.

Curran received more first preferences than eventual winners Emer Higgins on 9.9% and Gino Kenny on 7.9%, but both candidates proved more transfer-friendly on the day.

The upgrade to five seats may end up suiting Fianna Fáil well, judging by local election results in the constituency. 

Despite struggling mightily in Lucan, Fianna Fáil got candidates elected in Palmerstown-Fonthill (Moynihan) and Clondalkin (Trevor Gilligan).

In Clondalkin, Fianna Fáil’s two candidates attained 15.1% of first preferences, in contrast to Sinn Féin running four candidates and attaining 15.9% of first preferences.

While Fianna Fail’s dual candidate strategy didn’t pan out in Clondalkin and ended up with just one candidate, Sinn Féin’s famous voter discipline failed them and got just one candidate, William Carey, elected.

Elsewhere on the ballot, the Greens will be running Jithin Ram, hoping to improve on relatively strong 2019 and 2020 electoral performances for the party in Dublin Mid-West.

In the 2019 by-election, councillor Peter Kavanagh gave the Greens their best performance in the area since the days of Paul Gogarty (who, post-Dáil, has built a steady career as an independent councillor for Lucan.)

In 2011, Gogarty lost his seat for the Greens after seeing his share of the vote drop from 10.8% in 2007 and sinking to 3.5% amid a nationwide wipe-out for the Greens.

In 2016, the Greens reached their nadir in the constituency with their candidate attaining less than 1% of first preferences.

However, Kavanagh’s performance in the 2019 by-election and 2020 general election saw him pull in at 6.4% and 6.1% on both occasions.

Neither of Kavanagh’s performances were enough to win a Dail seat, but it allowed the Greens to stem the bleeding.

However, June’s local election results indicate a possible return to the doldrums for the Greens in Dublin Mid-West.

On South Dublin County Council, the party were entirely wiped out and saw a major reversal of fortune.

Ram himself failed to win a seat in Lucan in June, but modestly improved the Greens’ performance in the seat.

In 2019, the Greens picked up 4.9% of first preferences, which Ram increased to 5.1% in June. 

Elsewhere in Dublin Mid-West however, the Greens ran into serious problems.

In Clondalkin, where Kavanagh was elected with 8.1% of the vote in 2019, the Green share of the vote collapsed to 1.5%. 

In Palmerstown-Fonthill, the Greens saw a drop from 3.6% to 2.3%.