Anything can happen in Dundrum’s election race

Last week, we gave a brief overview of what to expect from the Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council race.

As a rule of thumb, either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil have been the biggest parties on the council, and owing to each constituency being a 6 or 7-seater there is a high chance for parties of all stripes to get elected.

This week’s analysis will look at Dundrum, and befitting of the local shopping centre there is plenty on offer for political geeks.

Dundrum had the highest turnout of all Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown constituencies in 2019 with 50.3% popping down to the polls.

Highlights from 2019 include the Greens getting elected on the first count, Éirígí getting double what Sinn Féin received in first preferences, and spoilt ballots finishing 12th out of 14 candidates.

This year promises to be messier than a painter’s radio.

When we started writing these articles all the way back in January, we posited that the Greens were going to lose a lot of their 2019 locals and 2020 general voter base and other progressive parties would benefit.

With the election now mere weeks away this theory looks more and more likely to replicate itself at the ballot box.

The Greens’ candidate, Daniel Dunne, scooped an impressive 19.6% of first preferences in 2019, which is a remarkable achievement in a 7-seater.

It’s possible to get elected in a 7-seater with just 4-5% of first preferences, so scooping nearly 20% is a monumental achievement.

Cut to 2024, the Greens are unlikely to replicate the same feat. 

We have posited that the Social Democrats and Labour, who are traditionally strong on Dún Laoghaire Council, would be the main beneficiaries of the Greens’ slump. 

The Greens’ 2019 poll-topper, Daniel Dunne, will not be running for re-election and Robert Jones will be running in his place.

In 2019 the Greens majorly benefited from people voting for the party and not necessarily the candidate; the same may not be true come June.

Fine Gael got two candidates elected in 2019, and will be looking to go one better this time around.

Fine Gael have a heavyweight in the form of Jim O’Leary leading the charge and O’Leary will be looking to secure his 4th term on the council.

O’Leary is joined by fellow 2019 winner Anna Grainger, while Eoin O’Driscoll will round out the Fine Gael trio.

Polling indicates that Fine Gael could enjoy something of a new leader bounce in June (although using polls in the context of local elections comes with a major health warning) and it’s not out of the question for Fine Gael to get a win for their three candidates here.

Fianna Fáil were desperately unlucky to not get two candidates elected in 2019, with Olivia Buckley being the last candidate elected on the day, but 2024 will be a chance for the party to right that wrong.

Shay Brennan is going for his 3rd term on the council and will be joined by Fiona Murray on the ballot.

As a whole, it will be tough for a current opposition party to make a dent in the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael armour.

June’s locals are unique insofar as they are happening right before a general election, so people who want to live out their Kyle Chandler in Early Edition fantasy of getting tomorrow’s news today should keep an eye out for results in Dundrum.

If opposition parties win more seats than coalition parties in a place like Dundrum, it could be a major hint of what’s to come in the general.

For opposition parties to win, they will also have to contend with two independents: Anne Colgan and Seán McLoughlin.

Both Colgan and McLoughlin took 17% of first preferences between them back in 2019, and both now have the advantage of serving Dundrum as independents for five years.

Those are tough nuts to crack, and both will be running again on June 7th.

Labour are the only opposition party that is currently serving the people of Dundrum, with their candidate Peter O’Brien getting exactly 6.66% of first preferences back in 2019 (and no, we are not messing!).

Parties like Labour are best-placed to benefit from the Greens’ woes in government and the Green voter who regrets their 2019 and 2020 vote could be giving Labour a look.

O’Brien was first elected onto Dún Laoghaire Council in 2014 after winning a seat in The Artist Formerly Known As Glencullen-Sandyford, before winning a seat in Dundrum back in 2019.

O’Brien has been a consistent Labour voice on the council over the last decade which is more than enough time for the average voter to know what he stands for and what he has achieved – very powerful tools for an election candidate to have at their disposal.

The Social Democrats are under pressure to perform in June, and will use Dundrum as a testing ground to see if their message is connecting with the electorate.

The party didn’t run in Dundrum in 2019 so we have no indication of what their best day looks like.

Síle Ní Dhubhghaill has been entrusted with the task of winning the seat for the party, and the path to victory is a lot easier than it first looks.

The Social Democrats have made every effort to occupy the same spot the Greens did this time in 2019; constructive opposition that is socially and environmentally aware.

It’s not exactly a state secret to reveal that Greens, Soc Dems and Labour are competing for the same voters (educated, middle-class, own a tote bag, has heard of or listens to The Rest Is Politics).

A place like Dundrum will provide a clue as to which party is connecting with the electorate.

2019 was a shambles for Sinn Féin in Dundrum; the party finished dead last behind Aontú, People Before Profit, independents, Éirígí and spoilt ballots.

Sorcha Nic Cormaic went from finishing 2nd in 2014 to finishing last in 2019.

Outside of Fianna Fáil in 2009 or Labour in 2014 it is hard to find a worse local election campaign than the one Sinn Féin ran in 2019.

A lot has changed since 2019 for Sinn Féin, and the party are looking to put that unfortunate incident behind them by running two candidates.

Winning in Dundrum would be a sure sign that the party is winning over the voters it needs to form the next government.

Rachel Gerrard and Cuán Young are Sinn Féin’s candidates for 2024, marking the first time Sinn Féin has run two candidates in Dundrum. 

Sinn Féin has attempted to build a broad voter base of students, what the Tories identified as the “Holby City woman” in their successful 2010 campaign, the aforementioned tote bag owners, sports fans, commuters, and the floating voter who has noticed the economy isn’t really working for them.

A place like Dundrum is a good place to see if the party’s attempts to moderate its image is paying off.

Former civil engineer Liam Coughlan will be running for Aontú and he makes an interesting campaign pitch: as someone who has worked with various Dublin local authorities for 25 years, he knows the inner workings of how the system works.

If Aontú and Coughlan are able to adequately express that with the electorate at large, they could be onto a winner.

At the end of the day local elections are fought on local issues and dealing with local authorities.

A candidate saying they know how to get a street light or pothole fixed is the ultimate trump card.

Aontú aren’t typically thought of as a party with a significant Dublin presence and indeed are tipped to do decent outside the Pale, but a candidate like Coughlan could prove to be the blueprint for their Dublin breakthrough.