The Great Palmerstown-Fonthill Showown Of 2024

Another week, another 5-seater.

Our trek through the various constituencies of South Dublin County Council continues with a look at Palmerstown-Fonthill. 

The constituency residing at the heart of the Dublin Mid-West constituency should give you a clue about the make-up of the average voter in the area.

Palmerstown-Fonthill elected an eclectic bunch of candidates in 2019; future Sinn Féin TD Mark Ward topped the poll and was elected on the first count, two independents secured election, and People Before Profit and Fianna Fáil rounded out the last two seats.

2019 was the first outing for the constituency in its current form (before that, it was part of the 8-seater Lucan) and will remain a 5-seater for June’s trip to the polls.

As stated, Mark Ward was elected on the first count here in 2019, with Lisa Colman co-opted onto South Dublin County Council following Ward’s 2020 general election victory.

Dublin Mid-West is one of Sinn Féin’s hotbeds – the 42.8% of first preferences received by the party in 2020 is eye-watering – so the party have opted to run four candidates this time out.

Running four candidates is a sure sign of Sinn Féin’s intent to become the largest party on South Dublin County Council.

In 2019, Sinn Féin ran just 12 candidates; at time of writing, 22 candidates have been announced for the party.

Getting four candidates from the same party elected in a 5-seater is unheard of outside of North Korea, so while the dream of having four candidates elected is a pipe dream for Sinn Féin it may have to settle for three.

As we mentioned last week, current Sinn Féin Councillor Derren Ó Brádaigh will be running in Lucan so the party will be running four all-new candidates.

The four candidates were selected last November, right around the time Sinn Féin’s advantage in the polls started to slip, but the hard yards put in during the winter could be the difference between winning a seat and not.

Ruth Nolan has the most name recognition of the Sinn Féin candidates, and intriguingly used to sit on SDCC as a member of People Before Profit and ran in the 2019 Dublin Mid-West by-election and 2019 locals for Independents4Change. 

In recent weeks, a lot has been made of Sinn Féin’s polling numbers seemingly failing to expand beyond their 2020 voter base and annoying their traditional left flank; Nolan headlining the ticket for the party could be seen as an olive branch to those voters.

When this constituency was known as Lucan, Nolan won a seat as a member of People Before Profit and her selection can be interpreted as the party looking to insulate the traditional left-wing voter bloc from other parties of the left.

Joining Nolan on the ballot are newcomers Cathal Ó Murchu, Daniel Loftus and Niamh Fennell. 

All three are known locally; Ó Murchu is a constituency worker with Ward, Loftus is a local teacher and Fennell is a mental health worker. 

Sinn Féin’s quartet means that People Before Profit’s Madeleine Johansson faces a challenge.

Johansson did secure 8.6% of first preferences in 2019 above Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates which implies a strong personal vote.

Transfers will be key in determining Johansson’s vote in June; the aim is to keep the share of first preferences roughly as they were in 2019 and simply scoop as many transfers as possible.

Apart from Ward, each candidate in Palmerstown-Fonthill didn’t secure election until the 11th count in 2019; there is no telling if proceedings will be just as arduous in June.

The Workers’ Party will also look to draw from the same well of left-leaning voters in June, and that’s where political analysts tear up what’s left of their hair.

Local firefighter David Gardiner has been chosen as the man on the ballot for the Workers’ Party.

The Workers’ Party haven’t come up much in this series of articles, but if they were ever going to pop up it would be in a constituency like this.

There is no telling how an electorate will react to four Sinn Féin candidates, a People Before Profit, a Workers’ Party candidate, and/or a Labour and Social Democrats candidates being on the ballot.

Fianna Fáil will look to secure re-election for their man Shane Moynihan.

The last man elected in 2019, Moynihan secured a boost to his profile after being chosen to run as Fianna Fáil’s candidate in the November 2019 by-election.

Moynihan wasn’t selected on that occasion but attained 11% of first preferences, a major jump from the 5% he secured the previous May. 

Moynihan’s campaign bio discusses a desire to tackle crime, improve local parks and beef up public transport in the area; in other words, local election candidate mana. 

Out of the current Government parties running in this part of South Dublin, Fianna Fáil are the ones likely to have the best shot of a seat.

Fine Gael will be running first-time candidate Sikandar Jahanzab, and has received the backing of local TD Emer Higgins as “hard-working, committed and passionate” who, if elected, “will make a fantastic Councillor.”

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael scrapped for the final seat in 2019, with only a percentage point in first preferences separating them, so transfers will be critical in determining Jahanzab’s election race.

Palmerstown-Fonthill electing two independents in 2019 tells you a bit about what voters want; based on first preferences, 1 in 5 people who cast their vote here in 2019 felt that a candidate outside the existing political sphere was the best choice to represent them on SDCC. 

Guss O’Connell has won four of his last five elections and has one of the most prolific track records in all of local politics in Ireland. 

O’Connell was first elected to South Dublin County Council back in 1991, and barring a brief stint between 1999 and 2004, has served his constituents on SDCC since then.

In these articles, we’ve compared various candidates to Real Madrid, them being the one team you don’t want your team to face.

O’Connell fits the bill here.

Alan Hayes joined O’Connell as the second independent candidate to be elected here in 2019, and while his CV isn’t as vast as O’Connell’s he also has the reputation of a hard-working, trusted local independent.

Labour will be running Funmi Olatunji Soyemi in the seat; June will be a test of where the party are picking up their transfers from in the political climate of 2024.

A strong campaign from Labour could cause Sinn Féin and their closest rival, the Social Democrats, to sweat.

The wildcard in the pack is Aontú running a candidate here in the form of local businessman Colm Quinn.

Quinn has spoken of the need to create a better environment for young people in the constituency and his election literature discusses the need to create more trade apprenticeships.

Quinn runs his own carpentry and flooring business and is involved with local sporting clubs. 

His background would make him a great local election candidate for any other party, and he is lending Aontú a bit of gravitas in an area they haven’t run in previously.

2024 will be the test to see where Aontú’s transfers truly come from – do they come from disaffected conservatives or more socially conservative Sinn Féin voters – so Quinn’s performance will be closely examined by party faithful and analysts at large.

Voters will be looking at least a dozen candidates on the ballot here in June, with only five seats up for grabs. 

To terribly paraphrase Elvis Presley; if you’re looking for election chaos, you’ve come to the right place.