Much Ado About Lucan

We continue our breakdown of each constituency covered by South Dublin County Council with a look at Lucan.

This 5-seater constituency enjoys long walks on the beach, puts their left sock on first and has a tendency to elect independent candidates.

Stretching all the way back to 1991, the Lucan electorate has always elected at least one independent candidate.

In the most recent set of locals from 2019, the constituency saw two independent candidates elected.

Lucan is an odd fish as far as constituencies go; at one stage it was a 4-seater, as recently as 2014 had 8 seats up for grabs, but it has now settled down, knuckled down after college and has sorted itself out to become a respectable 5-seater with a nice job and haircut. 

The results from 2019 saw the people of Lucan elect the aforementioned two independents, a Fine Gael candidate, a Fianna Fáil candidate and a Labour candidate.

Paul Gogarty and Liona O’Toole were the two non-party candidates to get elected, and both are seeking a 3rd consecutive term on South Dublin County Council.

Gogarty brings over 20 years of political experience to the table as both a TD and a member of South Dublin Council; if there is any candidate on the ballot sure of securing re-election you would be well advised to bet on him.

Fine Gael attained the highest share of first preferences in 2019, with 13.8% more than enough to get Vicki Casserly re-elected.

Her running mate, Caroline Brady, came close to getting elected in 2019 with 7.5% of first preferences but did not get over the line on that occasion.

Both Casserly and Brady are running again for Fine Gael, and there is every possibility that the party sees a new leader bounce in the polls.

Fine Gael can be confident of one seat here, the question remains if they have enough for two.

There is precedent for Fine Gael winning two of the five seats available – it happened in 2004 and 2014 – but it would require everything to go right for them on the day.

In lieu of any official communication from Fianna Fáil, it can be surmised that the party will be running the incumbent Ed O’Brien in the seat in June.

O’Brien was the last candidate elected in 2019, seeing off Brady in the process.

The Fianna Fáil man will be looking to make it three successful elections in a row and will be hoping to keep his first preference share in the 8% and above range to keep the seat.

Sinn Féin have a topsy-turvy relationship with Lucan; back in 2014, their candidate was elected on the first count, yet they sunk to below 5% in 2019.

The party are running two candidates to right the ship in 2024.

Derren Ó Brádaigh ran in the seat for Sinn Féin in 2019, but has been serving on South Dublin County Council since being co-opted into Lisa Colman’s seat in Palmerstown-Fonthill in late 2020.

Ó Brádaigh wasted no time in establishing himself on South Dublin County Council, becoming one of the most dynamic elected reps, and now he will look to secure a seat in Lucan come June.

The party having the confidence to run a candidate alongside Ó Brádaigh means the party are taking the seat seriously.

Lorraine Dwyer will be running alongside Ó Brádaigh, and has been hitting the canvass trail with him and local TD Eóin O’Broin in recent weeks.

Sinn Féin have made no secret of their desire to become the largest party on South Dublin County Council; scooping two seats in Lucan would be a major step in that direction.

Lucan, of course, is in the same Dáil constituency as Dublin Mid-West, and readers of this series will be aware of Sinn Féin’s prodigious poll-topping ability in the area.

Labour will be looking to hold onto the seat won by former TD Joanna Tuffy in 2019.

Tuffy, who served as a TD for Dublin Mid-West between 2007 and 2016, was elected onto South Dublin County Council in 2019.

Like Gogarty, the gravitas of being an established TD in a local election race is a huge advantage.

Tuffy was previously elected onto South Dublin County Council back in 1999; that kind of long-standing relationship with the local community is worth its weight in gold come election time.

Scooping 9.2% of first preferences in 2019, going up against Tuffy and Gogarty is like being drawn in the group of death for other candidates; a bit like Spain and Italy being drawn in the same group at the Euros.

The Social Democrats were in their youth when they ran here in 2019, pulling in a respectable, if not astounding, 5.9% of first preferences.

That is a solid base for a prospective candidate to build on for 2024, and the last five years have been good for the party.

The Sockies will be running Stephen Nolan as their candidate, not to be confused with the Northern Irish radio DJ of the same name.

The party didn’t run a candidate in Dublin Mid-West in 2020, and the 2019 by-election isn’t really a good data to base party performance on.

Guessing how the Social Democrats will do here in June will be just that; a guess.

It’s not impossible for them to win a seat here, but it would come at the expense of either Labour or a second Sinn Féin candidate.

Despite seeing success elsewhere on South Dublin County Council in 2019, Lucan was the one area the Greens couldn’t crack.

Their candidate on that day Vanessa Mulhall was co-opted onto South Dublin County Council before Christmas, but couldn’t crack 5% in first preferences back in 2019.

The Green candidate for 2024 is the party’s local area rep, Jithin Ram, a prominent member of the Irish-Indian community in Dublin.

Again, figuring out how well the Greens do is guesswork in lieu of dedicated polling.

The fun begins further down the ballot when you see the esoteric clash of People Before Profit and the Farmer’s Alliance.

The Farmers’ Alliance make their first entry into this series, and there is absolutely no idea how they will perform.

Farmers’ Alliance were only formed last year, but if you want a continental comparison, the BBB in the Netherlands would be your best bet; socially conservative with a focus on rural issues.

2024 will be the first set of elections the party will contest, and for those playing along at home, Mark Dunne is the candidate appearing on the ballot for them.

People Before Profit will be running Mark Keirns as their candidate in June.

People Before Profit actually managed to outpoll the Greens in 2019 in terms of first preferences, making their presence on the ballot something of a wildcard.

The party doing well in a 5-seater would be something of a surprise, because their best performances tend to come in 6 or 7-seaters.

The one time the Lucan electorate voted in a People Before Profit candidate, it was when the constituency was an 8-seater and the candidate in question secured just over 5% of first preferences.

All that to say, a poll-saving performance is the best the party can hope for here, anything after that is a bonus.