Transfers will decide how Ballyfermot-Drimnagh pans out

Among political anoraks, Dublin South-Central carries the nickname “The People’s Republic of Dublin South-Central” owing to its tendency to elect candidates from left of centre.

Ballyfermot and Drimnagh are some of the major settlements of Dublin South-Central and the pair combine at a local level to elect candidates on to Dublin City Council.

2019 saw the constituency elect a Sinn Féin candidate, a People Before Profit candidate, a veteran Independent, a member of the Greens who defected to Right To Change and a Fianna Fáil Councillor who now serves as Lord Mayor of Dublin.

2024 has a lot of narratives unfolding in this neck of the woods, with the headliner being Sinn Féin’s decision to run three candidates.

One of those candidates is Daithí Doolan who is also running for Europe on the same day, and it doesn’t take Mystic Meg to predict he will win at least one of those seats in June.

2019 is a year that Sinn Féin would rather forget, but even on a difficult day for the party Doolan still topped the poll in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh.

Sinn Féin running two candidates alongside Doolan could be read as a shrewd move by the party.

The headline story of the 2019 locals was the strong performance of the Greens, with Sophie Nicoullaud becoming the first Green candidate to be elected from the Ballyfermot-Drimnagh area since MEP Ciáran Cuffe secured election in 1999 when Drimnagh was in the South East Inner-City ward.

The Greens picking up a seat in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh was a sign that the Green project was connecting with voters, but in 2024 that seems like a hazy memory.

Nicoullaud represents the duopoly of the Greens; there was a split in the party between “Watermelons” (red on the inside, green on the outside like former European candidate Saoirse McHugh) and to borrow a phrase from German politics, “Realos.”

The “Realos,” in this context, are the more pragmatic, catch-all voice of the Greens (or depending on who you ask “Blueshirts on bikes”) and represent a majority of the Greens in Ireland.

Nicoullaud being elected as a Green and subsequently defecting to Right2Change is a perfect illustration of the dilemma facing the Greens as a party – radical action or play it safe? Systemic change or gradual reform?

The Greens are running their local area rep Ray Cunningham and selected him all the way back in April 2023 in order to try to retain the seat but it will be an uphill battle for them.

Cunningham, a technical writer by trade and Parkrun volunteer on the side, said he will campaign for better public transport in the area and wants to tackle the congestion on the Long Mile Road and Davitt Road.

For this reason, Sinn Féin senses that there is an untapped well of frustrated Green voters from 2019 who voted for change and didn’t like the results they got.

Doolan is joined on the ballot by the youthful Róisín Tracey and Mamy Nzema Nkoy, who works alongside local TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh.

With Ballyfermot-Drimnagh a 5-seater, a strong Sinn Féin performance here may dictate how the rest of the ballot pans out.

Current Lord Mayor of Dublin Daithí de Róiste is standing for Fianna Fáil, but appears to be the one politician who belongs to a Government party that people enjoy.

During his time as Lord Mayor, he spearheaded a campaign to make Dublin the first autism-friendly capital city in the world and proved to be a strong voice for the city in the aftermath of November’s riots.

De Róiste is a classic Councillor, and enjoys support from across the political spectrum, so even in a constituency that is typically not that friendly toward Government parties, he is likely to secure re-election come June.

Ballyfermot-Drimnagh is an area where success has eluded Fine Gael, but have chosen well-known local man Paddy Dingle as their candidate.

A popular candidate can mean the difference between victory and defeat and Dingle’s bona fides, such as his membership of Dynamic Drimnagh, his past as a SIPTU rep, and his founding of the High Five boxing academy make him a candidate with gravitas.

Despite the history books stating that Fine Gael are unlikely to gain a seat in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, you can’t accuse Fine Gael of not taking the constituency seriously in 2024.

South of the Liffey is where People Before Profit are at their strongest, and will be looking to get Hazel de Nortúin re-elected.

De Nortúin has sat on Dublin City Council since Bríd Smith’s election to the Dáil in 2016, and won a term in her own right in 2019.

De Nortúin pulled in just shy of 13% of the vote in 2019, but three Sinn Féin candidates on the ballot make repeating this feat a tricky proposition.

There is a path for both to be elected, but it would require them to see off Sinn Féin, a hypothetical Independents4Change candidate (who polled at 7.5% last time) and that ever-reliable wildcard, Labour.

In the likely event that Doolan tops the poll, how his transfers are distributed will do an awful lot to influence the race.

If his 2s and 3s go to his fellow Sinn Féin candidates, then both De Nortúin and Nicoullaud could be in trouble.

Should they increase their first preferences compared to 2019 and put in a strong showing on transfers, there might be enough to get them over the line.

If both candidates were elected while Sinn Féin were left with just one, it would serve as a warning call to Sinn Féin that they can’t take voters on their left for granted in their bid to control Leinster House.

Labour will be running their local area rep Patrick Dempsey (not the Grey’s Anatomy star) and they have a point to prove.

The party topped the poll in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh in 2009, but has failed to get someone elected since.

Dempsey’s background as a youth justice worker and work in the Merchant’s Quay centre means he has bona fides on social issues that may give him an edge over other candidates.

His calls to bring waste management back into public ownership and his push to redevelop Labre Park could also hit the spot with voters.

If Labour could make a comeback here, it would serve as a major boost for the party.

 Last but by no means least, the veteran Vincent Jackson will be running for his 6th term.

Jackson has served on Dublin City Council since 1991, and that kind of experience is what voters crave.

The benefit of being an Independent politician means appealing to everyone from all walks of life or political persuasion, and Jackson’s high personal popularity with voters makes facing re-election a mere formality.

A high personal vote as well as his transfer-friendly nature makes Jackson the one candidate you don’t want to face on a ballot paper, much like how football teams dread a Champions League draw against Real Madrid.