All to play for in Balbriggan

Balbriggan is your classic 5-seater constituency that has plenty to offer voters.

As a whole, the constituency is among the most politically engaged on Fingal County Council; the average turnout over the last 5 local elections is 48.2%.

Before the Electoral Commission ruined everyone’s spreadsheets by splitting Dublin Fingal into East and West, Balbriggan was in the constituency of Dublin Fingal.

At the next general election, Balbriggan will be in the West.

Before all that, however, there is the small matter of the local elections to take care of.

With June just around the corner, we are taking a look at what voters can expect at the polling booth. 

What is notable about Balbriggan is their decision to elect 2 Independent candidates out of a possible 5, which implies that Balbriggan voters are singular, issue-focused types and put a high priority on what happens in their area.

The two Independent candidates elected in 2019, Tony Murphy and Gráinne Maguire took 28.6% of first preferences between them.

Murphy topped the poll last time out with 17.7% of first preferences, while Maguire scoring just shy of 11% first preference votes is an incredibly strong performance that should make the other candidates sweat. 

For any aspiring candidate, trying to zero in on the Independent vote may be the path to victory.

Prior to his 2020 Dáil election, Green TD Joe O’Brien served the area on Fingal County Council.

Karen Power was co-opted onto Fingal County Council in his place, so Power has the advantage of serving the area for 4 years and having a sitting Government TD in her corner.

With that said, it isn’t a mystery to figure out where the Green ground swell in 2019 came from.

Once upon a time, the area was a Labour stronghold.

As recently as 2014, the area saw 3 Labour candidates on the ballot. 

In 2014, when Balbriggan was an 8-seater, Labour’s candidates took 17.2% of first preference votes.

In 2019, and indeed this year, the party is running just one candidate.

It isn’t hard to guess where Labour’s voters went during that time; they went to other progressive parties and in the context of 2019 that meant Joe O’Brien majorly benefited.

While a lot of hay will be made with how Sinn Féin performs in June, a potential Green backlash has the potential to shake up the race.

In 2024, it is anyone’s guess where that progressive vote goes. 

Independent candidates benefit from being transfer-friendly, being able to champion local issues that people from all ideologies can agree on and benefit from being an anti-Government vote in some cases.

Sinn Féin lost out in Balbriggan in 2019 but will be looking to get local area rep Anne Marie Brady elected onto Fingal County Council.

Malachy Quinn, who lost the seat in 2019, has been campaigning alongside Brady in recent weeks, with local TD Louise O’Reilly also joining them on the canvass.

Coastal Dublin is still a relatively weak spot for Sinn Féin at a local level, so getting a candidate elected is the best the party can hope for in this part of Dublin.

As for the establishment parties, Fianna Fáil will look to get their Balbriggan candidate back onto Fingal County Council after losing out in 2019.

Sinéad Lucey Brennan, who has hit the campaign trail with MEP Barry Andrews in recent times, has been entrusted with the responsibility of winning back the seat for Fianna Fáil.

Balbriggan is a hit-and-miss area for Fianna Fail, having only returned candidates in Balbriggan in 2 of the last 5 local elections.

Fine Gael has the advantage of running a 3-termer, Tom O’Leary.

O’Leary will be looking to secure his 4th term on Fingal County Council, and experience is worth its weight in gold in a local election setting.

Out of all the Government parties represented in Balbriggan, Fine Gael have the best chance of getting their candidate elected, the Greens may or may not face the wrath of the voter like Labour did in 2014 and Fianna Fáil themselves have something of an uphill battle to get their person onto Fingal County Council.

The aforementioned Labour are running former TD Brendan Ryan in Balbriggan.

Ryan has been a member of Fingal County Council since being co-opted in June 2023.

Ryan became notable for being one of Labour’s 7 survivors in the great Labour wipeout of 2016 general election, but opted not to run in the 2020 general election.

June will be a difficult set of elections for June, so drafting in a former TD to run for them is the bit of gravitas the party needs.

Labour boasts an advantage that the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and even Sinn Féin do not; they can bring in a former TD when a ballot needs a bit of razzmatazz.

On the note of the Social Democrats, the party have not yet selected their candidate at the time of writing, but People Before Profit have.

Local area rep Bryn Edwards will run in the seat for the party and there is a potential untapped voter base for Edwards to tap into.

Back in 2014, Barry Martin won a seat for the party in Balbriggan, while 3 Anti-Austerity Alliance candidates appeared on the ballot on hat occasion. 

With Sinn Féin not as strong in the area as they are elsewhere in Dublin and the aforementioned frustrated progressive vote up for grabs, Edwards could pull off an upset on the day.

While the party are strongest south of the Liffey, a win in north coastal Dublin would cause headaches for Sinn Féin on the left and scare the living daylights out of the establishment parties.

People Before Profit’s candidate from 2019, Oghenetano John Uwhumiakpor, will be running as an Independent which adds more spice to the pot.

Both Edwards and Uwhumiakpor are competing for the same votes in theory, but vote splitting isn’t a concern with proportional representation.

It is, however, a slight problem in the context of a 5-seater.

Both candidates will need to be aiming for at least 4% of the vote to even come close to a seat and hope that transfers go their way.

There is no obvious poll-topper looking at the race from a top-down view, which makes Balbriggan one to watch.

In 2019, Murphy was elected on the first count and his transfers greatly influenced how the race shaped out; it remains to be seen if he can pull the same trick in 2024 and shape the race.