Howth-Malahide has something for everyone in the audience

There are just two 7-seater constituencies on Fingal County Council, and both of them just so happen to be on the Northside of Dublin.

Howth-Malahide and Swords are the answer to this piece of pub quiz trivia, and as part of our ongoing series to break down each local constituency around Dublin ahead of June’s local elections, we are putting Howth-Malahide under the spotlight.

Swords readers; put the pitchforks away, we will cover you next week.

The constituency of Howth-Malahide came into being in 2009 after both Howth and Malahide were separate constituencies until 2009’s local elections.

The constituency has gone from 5 seats, to 8 seats, to its current form as a 7-seater.

With that groundwork established, you can be certain that parties both big and small will throw the kitchen sink at winning a seat here.

Swords went 14 counts before they elected all of their candidates in 2019, while Howth-Malahide had the decency to be over in three.

As fans of Stone Roses can attest, it is much better to be short and concise as opposed to sprawling and bloated.

Howth-Malahide elected four candidates on the first count in 2019, with Social Democrats TD Cian O’Callaghan being the most noteworthy name elected on that occasion.

The four candidates elected on the first count in 2019; Eoghan O’Brien of Fianna Fáil, David Healy of the Green Party, the aforementioned O’Callaghan and Labour’s Brian McDonagh, had 62.2% of first preferences between them.

Candidates from four different parties being elected with such a high share of the votes is practically unheard of in Irish politics, but it remains to be seen if the same feat will happen in June.

In the words of Wayne’s World, Fianna Fáil are feeling a little saucy and feel confident enough to run 2 candidates this time; O’Brien will be looking to seek a second term alongside Cathal Haughey.

Haughey failed in his bid to be elected onto Dublin City Council in 2019 in Clontarf, and will look to continue the Haughey legacy into the 2020s.

Fine Gael are sticking with their winning plan of running two candidates, and will look to get Aoibhinn Tormey and Anthony Lavin re-elected.

Tormey and Lavin were selected by Fine Gael back in November, a sure sign of confidence that the party are backing their candidates.

Howth-Malahide has historically been a weak area for Sinn Féin, but getting someone elected here would be a sign that the party is winning over voters right across Dublin.

With the constituency sitting within Dublin Bay North at a Dáil level it can be ascertained that there is enough party machinery and infrastructure to get someone elected in Howth-Malahide.

Daire Ní Laoi was among the many Sinn Fein candidates to lose their seat in 2019 following the election in 2014. At time of writing, Sinn Féin have yet to select their candidate or candidates.

Considering their historically weak performance in the area, they may opt to run just the one candidate.

While a party not selecting a candidate in January isn’t cause for concern just yet, a Sinn Féin candidate will be at a disadvantage compared to other candidates on the ballot.

Likewise, while People Before Profit are running candidates elsewhere in Fingal, they do not appear to be running someone in Howth-Malahide.

The earlier a candidate is selected, the longer they have to cover the electorate which is creeping up to the 50,000 mark.

It is not uncommon for a candidate to not be picked until February or even March, but every week counts in the context of a local election.

There is no indication as of yet if Independent Jimmy Guerin will run in June, but considering his strong personal vote last time out a seat is likely to be there for Guerin if he wishes to run again.

The million Euro question of who gets elected in Howth-Malahide is relatively straightforward.

Joan Hopkins of the Social Democrats has one of the higher media profiles among Councillors ever since she was co-opted into O’Callaghan’s seat in 2020, and with the party strong in that area her re-election looks like a sure bet.

Fianna Fáil man Eoghan O’Brien has served on the Council since being co-opted in 2007 meaning the idea of O’Brien losing this seat in his backyard is unthinkable.

Fine Gael’s two candidates both received around 10% of first preferences in 2019, with transfers getting them over the line, and will likely perform the same in 2024.

With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s co-operation now extended to a national level, O’Brien’s surpluses will potentially rubberstamp their re-election.

David Healy of the Greens will be looking to secure his 5th term on the Council, and his own high personal popularity as well as transfers from voters will make him one of the stronger candidates on the ballot.

Fingal is generally a strong area for Labour, with two of their current 7 TDs hailing from Dublin Bay North and The Artist Formerly Known As Dublin Fingal.

If you mention “May 2014” around a Labour member they would be entitled to curl up into a ball and cry, but even then, in the darkest hour for the party, they still managed to get someone elected in Howth-Malahide.

That candidate was Brian McDonagh, and while the last 10 years haven’t exactly been sunshine and rainbows for the party of bread and roses, McDonagh has been the one consistent for the party on Fingal County Council.

If McDonagh can survive a bleak day for Labour in 2014, he is likely to survive what the voters of Howth-Malahide throw at him in 2024.

Even with a competent Sinn Féin machine behind a candidate, McDonagh has enough campaigning experience (and transfer potential) to retain his seat.

2019 saw just 10 candidates on the ballot paper, and while the final line-up for June is yet to be finalised, it would not be surprising if Howth-Malahide returned the exact same configuration of candidates as it did last time.