North Inner City promises plenty of election drama

Like any good constituency, North Inner City offers more than its fair share of thrills and spills.

This 7-seater will be unlikely to see a repeat of 2019’s election where 21 candidates appeared on the ballot.

To date, around 10 candidates have declared their interest in their candidacy from the major parties, while a strong Independent presence on the ballot is likely.

North Inner City is like the Late Late Toy Show, because there is something for everyone in the audience.

If excess was the theme of 2019, the theme of 2024 in the constituency appears to be moderation.

The big winner in 2019 was Ciáran Cuffe getting elected on the first count with just shy of 15% of first preferences, but that old chestnut – no dual mandates! – meant that Cuffe could not serve as a member of Dublin City Council and a member of the European Parliament.

Janet Horner ended up as the Greens’ voice on Dublin City Council representing the people of North Inner City.

With the elections taking place in June, it is difficult to see who the poll topper could be.

Applying national polling averages to local elections is not advisable, as the conditions that influence voters at a local level are often different to what motivates voters at a national level.

North Inner City has a habit of selecting independent candidates – 2019 saw three candidates elected, while 2014 saw four returned – and that may well be the case again in 2024.

Veteran Councillors Christy Burke and Nial Ring are likely to run, and take a massive chunk of votes with them.

North Inner City has always struggled to attain a decent turnout, with the average turnout from the last 5 elections sitting at a measly 36.3%.

2019 was such a chaotic election in North Inner City that spoilt ballots got more votes than 8 of the candidates that appeared on the ballot that day.

In any election, a low turnout typically helps the incumbent and that could be the case once again in this constituency.

The poll-topper truly could come from any party, which makes this battle that bit more interesting.

Fianna Fáil will be running three candidates in the constituency

Anne-Marie Connolly, Caio Benicio and Isabel Oliveira will be lining out for Fianna Fáil on this occasion.

Benicio came to prominence after intervening in last November’s Parnell Square attack.

The Social Democrats can be reasonably confident in getting at least one of their two candidates elected, with Daniel Ennis and Ellen O’Doherty running for the party in the stomping ground of TD Gary Gannon.

Having a sitting TD in your corner can be a massive boon for a candidate as it affords the candidates the infrastructure and resources that could mean the difference between being elected or not.

Sinn Féin are running two candidates, with incumbent Janice Boylan joined by newcomer Alan Whelan.

With North Inner City in the backyard of party leader Mary Lou McDonald, the party is looking for a strong result here.

The nearby Cabra-Glasnevin has three Sinn Féin candidates running, so a strong return in this part of Dublin would bode well for Sinn Féin’s aspirations to run the country.

It appears that Fine Gael are also playing it relatively safe by running the incumbent Ray McAdam, who will be going for a 4th term on Dublin City Council.

Both Boylan and McAdam are among the strongest incumbents in terms of vote share and name recognition, so the real drama will begin further down the ballot.

Labour veteran Joe Costello announced his retirement from politics last summer, and Deborah Byrne was co-opted into his seat last summer.

The party has opted to run FAI coaching educator Tom O’Connor in the seat.

Like other constituencies, Labour will have to contend with a strong left-of-centre presence on the ballot paper, so if the party can hold onto the seat here, it would be a bright spot in what is expected to be a gruelling day at the polls for the party.

People Before Profit selected Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin as their candidate, and Ó Ceannabháin is a man who wears many hats.

A housing activist, a musician, a writer, and a local area representative for the party, he said that his campaign would focus on securing access to cultural spaces for the working class.

For added spice, the Workers’ Party, who outperformed all of the Fianna Fáil and Social Democrats candidates in 2019, will most likely be running again.

Former Councillor Eilis Ryan will not be running this time, but signs point to her successor, Claire O’Connor, appearing as the candidate on the paper.

O’Connor has been the local area representative since 2021, which is more than enough time for a prospective candidate to build up a rapport and get her name out among would-be voters.

Examining the constituency from a top-down view, it appears that whoever can receive transfers from the strong Independent candidates, McAdam, Horner and Boylan will get over the line.

Independent candidates tend to leave it late to declare their candidacy, so while the race appears fairly stable now, there is every chance of things ramping up between now and June.

Who needs Netflix when you have the constituency of North Inner City?