Dublin likely to remain on 4 seats for European elections

Dublin is likely to remain on 4 seats for next year’s European elections, with the odds of Dublin becoming a 5-seater increasingly unlikely ahead of a redraw of constituency boundaries.

The Electoral Commission plans to announce what region will gain an extra European seat and how their boundaries are changed, with the Midlands-North West constituency tipped to go from 4 MEPs to 5.

Dublin is likely to stay as a 4-seater as it only became a 4-seater for the 2019 European elections, and Dublin’s population is likely to be judged not to have grown sufficiently in population since 2019 to warrant granting an extra seat.

The Dublin constituency has already seen a major shake-up in the 2024 race with the recent announcement that Frances Fitzgerald will not be running for Fine Gael.

The Irish Examiner has reported that former TDs Noel Rock and Kate O’Connell are being tapped up as her replacement.

Both TDs lost their seat in the 2020 general election, and Fine Gael are reluctant to let any sitting members of the Dáil run for Europe as their Dáil majority has grown more precarious.

A recent decision by the European Commission recommended that Ireland should have 15 MEPs, marking the highest amount of MEPs Ireland will send to Europe since 1999.

Fine Gael, Sinn Fein, Labour and the Greens have made submissions to the Electoral Commission that Laois and Offaly be moved out of Ireland South to the Midlands-North West constituency.

All four parties recommended that Dublin remain on 4 seats.

Fine Gael has also proposed keeping Laois and Offaly in Ireland South but moving Clare to Midlands-North West.

The final decision will be made on Monday, November 20th.

With Dublin remaining on a 4-seater, and a major vote-getter like Fitzgerald not running, the constituency is all to play for.

Last time out, Green MEP Ciáran Cuffe topped the poll, Fitzgerald in a strong second, Fianna Fáil MEP winning the “Brexit” seat, and Clare Daly edging out Sinn Féin MEP Lynn Boylan to secure the final seat.