Race for Áras takes shape

Independent Senator Frances Black has confirmed she is “open” to the idea of running for President.

Black, who was re-elected to the Seanad in January to the Industrial and Commerical Panel, was responsible for drafting the Occupied Territories Bill and is understood to be the candidate being eyed up by opposition parties as their joint candidate.

Initial reports that Social Democrats co-founder and former Labour TD Róisín Shortall would make a bid for the Áras were disproven in March, with Shortall stating early in March that she had “no interest” in the role.

In recent weeks, Sinn Fein, Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens and People Before Profit have held talks about nominating a joint candidate for October’s presidential election.

A consensus candidate was first floated by Labour leader Ivana Bacik in January, with the Labour leader writing to acting Social Democrats leader Cian O’Callaghan and Green leader Roderic O’Gorman on the issue.

The prospect of the left backing a candidate picked up traction in February when Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald told reporters “it makes sense for us to work together and I think that we can,” when asked about the centre-left parties joining together to back a presidential candidate and McDonald was in attendance at an early March meeting between the various opposition leaders.

The March meeting saw the leaders of Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens and a representative from People Before Profit attend the meeting.

The prospect of the Greens and People Before Profit or Labour and Sinn Féin working together may invoke the famous “splitters” skit from The Life Of Brian, but there is historical precedent; Mary Robinson won the 1990 election under the Labour banner after receiving backing from the Workers’ Party and a burgeoning Green Party.

To appear on the ballot, a candidate must be backed by at least 20 members of the Oireachtas and four local authorities, which means that a prospective candidate of the centre-left to left would get onto the ballot with ease.

Black told the Irish Times that “my name has been mentioned” in relation to the presidency and stated “I have been asked by a couple of the parties”, adding “I would be open to the conversations.”

She said, “it is a huge honour to even have my name in the mix.”

Black is understood to be the desired candidate among the left due to her chops on the Occupied Territories Bill, a stick which the opposition has beat the government with in recent weeks.

Black introduced the Bill to the Seanad in 2018, which calls for the banning of goods and services into Ireland from settlements deemed to be “illegally established on occupied territories.”

Per the definition outlined in the legislation, this would mean that Israeli settlements on Palestinian land would fall under the purview of the law.

President Michael D Higgins is ineligible to run for a third term, having served in office since winning the 2011 election.

Rumours persist that Higgins’ fellow Galwegian Catherine Connolly has been identified by the left as a possible candidate for the Áras, with the Irish Times additionally reporting that SDLP MP Claire Hanna, who recently became the first MP to speak in Irish during Prime Minister’s Questions in Westminister, has been eyed for the role.

Conor McGregor’s visit to the White House last week has poured fuel on the fire that he will be looking to run for the Áras, but he would face an uphill battle to even appear on the ballot as he requires the signatures of 20 TDs or Senators and the backing of four separate county councils.

In 2018, Fingal County Council was the only of Dublin’s local authority areas to back an independent candidate for President, with Pieta House founder and former Senator Joan Freeman getting the nod at that time.

The other three local authorities in Dublin (Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council) all declined to back a candidate.

With Fine Gael being the biggest party on each of the four councils (aside from Fingal, where they and Labour have the most seats) it is unlikely that any of the four Dublin councils would be in a rush to back McGregor’s hypothetical bid for the Dáil, nor is the UFC fighter likely to find 20 TDs or Senators to back him.

Outside of Dublin, the majority of Ireland’s local councils are run by Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, with opposition parties like Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats and Labour making up the opposition ranks, making it unlikely that any council would give an independent candidate such as McGregor their backing.

Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar stated “good Irish dads teach their sons to detest men like Conor and their daughters to avoid men like him,” while Tánaiste Simon Harris stated, “Conor McGregor does not speak for the people of Ireland,” which last year’s local and general election results prove that McGregor’s brand of anti-woke, anti-immigrant, anti-establishment politics are confined to the Twitter and Facebook echo chambers.

Harris stated that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will not be running a joint candidate this year (clearing the path for a mooted Bertie Ahern comeback bid for Fianna Fáil, who would likely secure the nomination with ease), Fine Gael have settled on two major candidates.

It is understood that former Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald is the preferred option among the Dublin branch of Fine Gael, while the rural branch of Fine Gael is vouching for former EU commissioner Mairead McGuinness.

Within Fine Gael, there is a hesitation to run a candidate from Dublin as they are looking to move away from the notion they are a Dublin-centric party and by picking a candidate from a rural constituency such as McGuinness (who has established chops within the agricultural sector), the party believes they could make a bid for rural voters.

The strongly-rumoured Bertie Ahern bid for Fianna Fáil only adds fuel to the fire for Fine Gael; if their coalition partner runs a candidate from Dublin city, they would, in theory, have free reign over the rural vote.

Speculation aside, one candidate has formally declared their interest in the candidacy; 2018’s runner-up, Peter Casey.

The Donegal businessman finished a distant second in the 2018 race, securing 23.% of first preferences compared to President Higgins’ 55.8%.

Casey attracted controversy during the 2018 election season for his comments on members of the Traveller community.

Casey attempted to make his anti-establishment lightning strike twice in the 2020 general election, running as an independent candidate in Dublin West but was markedly less successful after securing less than 500 first preferences and being eliminated on the second count.

Eurovision winner Linda Martin has claimed that a “major party” has sought her to run for the presidency and the prospect of comedian Tommy Tiernan going for the Áras has been floated endlessly by tabloid outlets.

While the 2018 election was a relatively straightforward affair, October’s election is on track to have more plotlines and characters than a Robert Altman film.