All quiet on the Dublin Fingal West front

We can only hope canvassers bring a packed lunch and a pair of socks.

While Dublin Fingal was, to use a technical term, bloody huge, when it was a constituency Dublin Fingal West is somehow even more awkward in terms of geography. 

Swords is out of the picture, but now we have Balbriggan, Skerries, Rush and Lusk under the one roof thanks to constituency redraws.

Back in the 2020 general election, when the greatest threat facing the world was the music of Lewis Capaldi never being off the radio, Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly with just under 25% of first preferences.

O’Reilly was elected on the first count in one of Sinn Féin’s big wins that day.

O’Reilly will be fighting this general election in Dublin Fingal West and will surely be the favourite to top the poll in this 3-seater.

The Sinn Féin TD burst onto the scene in 2016 by taking out Fine Gael’s Minister for Health James Reilly and has since established herself as a strong voice of the party’s left flank.

Her union chops make her popular with the kind of voters Sinn Féin took off Labour in 2016 and 2020.

Now that O’Reilly is playing in a smaller pool, she has every right to believe she will top the poll once again.

Sinn Féin scored 13.4% of the vote in Balbriggan in June (councillor Malachy Quinn was the successful candidate with 7.2% while running mate Anne Marie Brady scooped up 6.1%, not enough for a seat), but couldn’t make a breakthrough in Howth-Malahide with 6% of the vote split between their two candidates.

Their combined vote in Balbriggan not even being enough to overtake Labour in Balbriggan (which, it should be noted, is the youngest population in the country according to the 2022 Census) could be cause for concern.

In 2020, Sinn Féin performed exceptionally well among younger voters, especially the 18-35 demographic.

In June, that demographic went elsewhere be it other parties of the left such as the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, Labour, or went towards independents.

There is no question that O’Reilly is going to win re-election but it may be with much less than 25% of the vote she received in 2020.

Every percentage point counts in a 3-seater, and that’s where Labour, of all parties, might have the edge.

As we’ve covered elsewhere, Duncan Smith is gearing up for the fight of his political life in the nearby Dublin Fingal East but there is a real chance of them picking up a seat in Dublin Fingal West.

June’s local elections marked Labour’s best local election results since 2009 and their performance in Rush-Lusk was nothing short of miraculous.

General election candidate Robert O’Donoghue secured just under 26% of first preferences in Rush-Lusk to get elected on the first count, while Corina Johnston was elected on the third count after picking up 14% of first preferences.

Between those two Labour candidates in Rush-Lusk, they received 4900 first preferences.

Nearly 5,000 first preferences from just one local electoral area is terrific news for Labour, and adding in Brendan Ryan’s 1600 first preferences in Balbriggan means that O’Donoghue is very much in the running.

As we said in our Dublin Fingal East count, having a high personal vote counts for an awful lot in a three seater, which means that O’Donoghue is well positioned to make the leap to the Dáil.

It is a fair guess to assume that those who voted for Labour in June will still vote for Labour; what makes the race more interesting is the party very clearly picking up some crossover support from people who voted for the Greens in 2020 and grá from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on the transfer front.

Some parties are in a better position at the start of a general election than others; Labour genuinely can’t complain about this election being fought so soon after a strong set of local election results in this part of Fingal.

Local Green Minister Joe O’Brien starts the race as a slight underdog.

O’Brien’s by-election win in 2019 (with this general election being fought five years to the day since he first won a Dáil seat) marked the party making inroads with voters who never usually voted for the Greens but June saw a reversal of that trend.

Transfers saw O’Brien finish 2nd in Dublin Fingal in the 2020 general election above heavyweights like Darragh O’Brien and Alan Farrell in a historic election for the party.

In winter 2024, the Greens are now in a fight to hold onto their 12 Dáil seats.

O’Brien was one of the Greens to win a seat back in the 2019 locals, scoring a healthy 14.6% on that occasion.

In that same seat in June, the share of the vote slipped to 9.6% and the same seat was lost.

In Rush-Lusk, the Greens couldn’t crack 3% of the vote while in the nearby Howth-Malahide David Healy (who will be running in Dublin Bay North) went from 17.3% of the vote in 2019 to 7.6%.

O’Brien’s stint as Minister of State at the Department of Social Protection, Community Development as well as the Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth (note to the next government; please give government departments a catchier name), gives him a high profile and has something tangible to show voters on the doorstep.

The Greens’ election campaign has made a big deal of progress in the likes of social welfare and community development and O’Brien’s work on those issues looks good on a CV; the trick now is to produce those stats on the doorstep.

If Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael wish to lead the government again, winning a seat here would go a long way.

Fianna Fáil will be running Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee in the seat, while Fine Gael will be running Grace Boland, daughter of former Fine Gael Minister John.

Clifford-Lee ran in the 2016 and 2020 general election, as well as the 2019 by-election; her track record is 5.6% in 2016 and 2020, and 18.5% in the 2019 by-election.

Clifford-Lee was running mate for Darragh O’Brien in 2020, and like Emer Currie running for Fine Gael in Dublin West having been Leo Varadkar’s running mate, Clifford-Lee has a decent chance of taking the final seat.

Boland’s relative name recognition (she is notably not an elected representative but runs a local legal practice) could also be enough to put her in the running. 

As far as local election results go, Fine Gael had the better set of local elections, outpolling Fianna Fáil in Balbriggan and Rush-Lusk but finished behind Fianna Fáil in Swords.

The wildcard in the pack is independent candidate Tony Murphy.

Independents are tipped to be one of the stars of the local campaign, and Murphy is looking to make it third time lucky for a Dáil bid.

Murphy ran in 2016 under the Independent Alliance, with 4.1% of first preferences, and did slightly better in 2020 as an independent with 5.7% of the vote.

It is Murphy’s performance at a local level that makes him stand out, however.

First elected in 2014 in Balbriggan, Murphy has been elected on the first count in both 2019 and 2024.

In 2019, he was elected with with 17.7% of the vote, or 1,881 first preferences before going one better with 19.4% of the vote, or 2,148 first preferences, in the June just gone.

A major part of Murphy’s appeal is that independents can pick up transfers from just about anyone, so while getting his base to turn out for him in Balbriggan will be crucial to get him a high share of first preferences he has the additional cushion of transfers to give him a lift later on.

Other candidates on the ballot include Ollie Power of People Before Profit, who received 3.1% of the vote in Swords back in June, Aontú’s Robbie Loughlin, who narrowly lost out in Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart with 7.6% of the vote, and candidates from minor far-right parties Irish Freedom Party and The Irish People.

If any readers can tell the difference between those two latter parties, we’re all ears.

The most successful, succinct answer wins a trip to Trabolgan.