Far-right alliance to contest general election

In June’s local elections, far-right candidates won seats across various Dublin councils.

Candidates from parties such as the National Party and the Irish Freedom Party both won seats (in Blanchardstown-Mulhudduart and Palmerstown-Fonthill respectively) while two independent candidates were elected on Dublin City Council after running on explicitly anti-immigrant, far-right campaigns (Gavin Pepper and Malachy Steenson.) 

While four out of a total 949 seats nationwide doesn’t necessarily reflect a landslide, it does mark the first time in recent history that candidates who explicitly ran as far-right or Irish nationalist candidates won seats.

On Dublin City Council, where candidates from the National Party, Irish Freedom Party, and the Irish People ran, they garnered a total of 2.3% of first preferences between them.

Their combined 1.5% total on Fingal County Council was enough to have them overtake People Before Profit-Solidarity’s 1%, while their best performance came on South Dublin County Council when the three aforementioned parties (plus Ireland First) scored 3.7% of first preferences.

That 3.7% haul was enough to see them overtake the Greens and Social Democrats.

On the European ballot, the combined far-right share of the vote came to 5.7%.

Of the four elected candidates, (Andrews, Boylan, Doherty and Ó Ríordáin), their combined first preferences share came to 12.5%.

In the aftermath of the local elections, much was written about the prospect of a left-wing coalition on Dublin City Council and Fingal County Council, and now in the lead-up to a general election, the far-right will join forces in a bid to maximise their vote share.

Followers of Adrian Kavanagh’s election blog might note that there are some candidates running in Dublin under the Independent/National Alliance banner; this is the name given to far-right independent and the far-right parties’ electoral alliance.

The National Party, Ireland First, the Irish People and various independent candidates are running under the banner and will be running candidates in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Rathdown, Dún Laoghaire, Dublin West, Dublin North-West and Dublin South-West.

The Irish Freedom Party is not part of the alliance, and indeed is running against the alliance in Dublin Bay North.

The aftermath of the local elections revealed that nationwide was less than 50% nationwide; this is down to a number of factors such as voter apathy, councils having limited power by European standards or people having pre-existing plans for that day.

In the case of the National Party’s Quinlan, he was elected with a turnout of 32.5%, while Moore of the Irish Freedom Party was elected with a turnout of 37.4%.

Steenson was elected in the North Inner City on a turnout of 34.1%, while Pepper was elected in Ballymun-Finglas on a turnout of 41.7%.

The turnout each of those four councillors faced in June will jump up by over 20% when the country goes to the polls in the next few weeks.

As political scientists will be quick to tell you, low turnout and voter apathy is a petri dish for candidates from smaller parties to get elected, especially in an electoral system as unique as Ireland.

In a general election, turnout is always much higher.

In Dublin West, the average turnout for the last five general elections has been 64%, while the average turnout in Dublin Mid-West for the same time period of 60.8%.

Recent nationwide polling indicates that candidates from the far-right are unlikely to win a Dáil seat, even with the margin of error and the supposed “shy voter” taken into effect.

On the website for the National Alliance, the world “globalisation” is spelt with the American English Z instead of an S, and want to cut funding to “subversive NGOs that undermine our national interests,” which has not featured in any pre-election polling for what is on voters’ minds.

The cost of living crisis, the housing crisis and lack of school places for children with disabilities are likely to be among the topics faced by candidates on the doorstep in upcoming weeks.

June proved that blaming immigrants for housing shortages was somewhat of a winning message, but recent comments from Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris about the issue indicate that Fine Gael and other major parties are likely to use language surrounding it (albeit, in friendlier, more focus group tested terms) which will take the wind of the National Alliance’s sails.

In September, the Taoiseach told the Irish version of the Sunday Times “people understand the fact that homelessness numbers are heavily impacted by the fact we are seeing many people seek protection in our country, seek asylum in our country and many people come from abroad hoping to have a new future in Ireland and immigration, it has many, many pluses, but it has had a challenge there.”

The Taoiseach’s comments on the issue, which was clearly run by a crack team of press and legal people, is much more likely to resonate with the electorate than a candidate from a minor far-right party screaming on Twitter about what is being printed in SPHE textbooks.

While it is true that general elections are unpredictable and issues have the potential to explode overnight (Leo Varadkar and his team of advisors probably have nightmares about wading into the Black and Tans controversy in 2020), there is little to show that their alliance is connecting with the masses.

As of late October, the National Alliance has announced they will be running 25 candidates across Ireland, but whether they will make an electoral breakthrough is another question.

On Elon Musk’s Twitter, where #IrelandIsFull regularly trends, there is an element of illusion involved.

May 2024 research carried out by Sky News found that nearly 60% of tweets on the #IrelandIsFull hashtag originate in the United States.

In the month of April, 54.4% of tweets with the hashtag #IrelandIsFull came from the United States, while 57% of tweets that used the hashtag #IrelandBelongsToTheIrish were from American Twitter accounts.

As veterans of the 2015 British general election or American presidential elections will tell you, social media is not representative of real life.

Time will tell if this National Alliance is yet another social media flash in the pan.