As we move away from the Southside constituencies covered by Dublin City Council, we are moving onto South Dublin County Council as part of our local election previews.
Clondalkin is our first stop on the map, and it’s one of the more unpredictable constituencies to cover.
That’s right folks; we are talking about a 7-seater.
Trying to break down the idiosyncrasies of a 7-seater is like trying to explain a David Lynch film; you can never be quite sure what exactly is going on.
Identifying where Clondalkin lies at a Dáil level – in this case, Dublin Mid-West – will provide some clues.
At a Dáil level, Sinn Féin candidates took an astounding 42.8% of first preferences in the February 2020 general election.
Messrs Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward’s blockbuster performance is the inspiration for Sinn Féin to run four candidates here in June.
Sinn Féin only returned one candidate here in 2019 and will be keen to make amends here.
The incumbent William Casey will be leading the charge for Sinn Féin and will be joined on the ballot by Rosemary Masinga, Joe Nugent, and Emma McCormack.
Ó’Broin is serving as director of elections for the party across Dublin Mid-West, and told Southside People last November that the party is running “the maximum number of candidates” in the locals.
4 candidates running in a 7-seater is a sure sign of Sinn Féin’s ambitions in that regard.
Getting 2 elected is the bare minimum, but one suspects the party will try to squeeze every last drop out of their candidates and will gun for 4.
The stronger the Sinn Féin performance, the more they face the possibility of squeezing out other parties of the left.
Gino Kenny notably got elected as a TD off the back of Sinn Féin transfers in 2020 but with four Sinn Féin candidates running here it could be People Before Profit that are sweating it the most.
Prominent party activist Darragh Adelaide has been tasked with winning a seat for People Before Profit in a seat they haven’t won since 2014.
In November, when it was announced that Sinn Féin were running four candidates, it seemed like a sure bet that at least three of those candidates will get elected.
Prominent frustration on Sinn Féin’s left flank over the party’s stance on Gaza, immigration and the hate speech bill is the biggest threat to the party in June, and a candidate like Adelaide will be well-placed to hoover up that discontent.
Clondalkin is one of Sinn Féin’s strongholds; June will be a test to see if they’ve expanded their voter base after the highs of 2019 and 2020 or if their drift towards the centre has turned off the party faithful.
Fine Gael TD Emer Higgins was a major figure in Clondalkin politics before her eventual Dáil election in 2020, and are well-placed to hold onto the seat.
Shirley O’Hara was co-opted onto South Dublin County Council following Higgins’ Dáil ascension in 2020 and is well-placed to keep her seat.
The challenge for Fine Gael will be gathering enough transfers to elect O’Hara’s running mate, Sarah Adedeji.
Fine Gael were dealt somewhat of a blow by 2-termer Kenneth Egan announcing in February he would not be seeking re-election.
The Olympic champion was first elected in 2014, but will be stepping away to focus on his psychotherapy and public speaking business.
The 7-seater nature of Clondalkin means that Fine Gael will be assured of a seat here at the very least, but getting two elected is a pretty tall order considering Egan’s high personal vote and reputation.
Fianna Fáil can be confident in retaining a seat here, with veteran Trevor Gilligan going for a 5th term on South Dublin County Council.
First elected in 2004, Gilligan may not be a poll-toper but he is a consummate professional and boasts a 100% win record on his CV.
It is hard to imagine the streak ending in 2024.
Fianna Fáil were unlucky to not get their 2nd candidate elected alongside Gilligan in 2019, and will be looking to go one further in 2019.
Local man Ciaran Power has been drafted in to win the extra seat for Fianna Fáil, and he has the weight of the party behind him.
No less than Tánaiste Micheál Martin has sung the praises of Ciaran Power, who tipped him as someone who will “make a very fine Councillor for the area” back in February.
The 2019 race saw former Labour TD Robert Dowds narrowly lose out on a seat, having previously served the area as a member of South Dublin County Council before his switch to the Dáil.
A former TD not even managing to win a local seat they once held was indicative of how far Labour have fallen.
DCU student Joshua Ellul will be running in the seat for Labour, with Ellul stating they are the first non-binary person to run for election in Ireland and at 21, will be among the youngest candidates Labour would run anywhere in the country.
The injection of youth and a victory for Labour would help dispel the notion that younger generations have turned their back on the party after their ruinous stint in coalition and moved to other parties on the left.
Likewise, it would show that Labour are strong again in an area where they topped the poll as recently as 2009.
It should be noted that Dowds was exceptionally unlucky not to get elected in 2019; he had 8.4% of first preferences which in theory should be more than enough to get someone elected in a 7-seater.
Dowds proved to be transfer-unfriendly which was a major factor in his defeat, so in order for Ellul to win, it is crucial they pick up transfers.
Sinn Féin’s transfers were crucial in getting Gino Kenny elected in 2020’s general election, and how Sinn Féin’s transfers pan out here will do a lot to shape the race.
In the event two of Sinn Féin’s candidates roar home on the first or 2nd count, their transfers may well change the outcome of the race.
Keeping on a transfer-friendly note, the Social Democrats are running here for the first time, and with 2 candidates to boost.
Independent Councillor Eoin Ó Broin (no relation to the Sinn Féin TD!) was elected in 2019 but joined the Social Democrats in Feburary 2022.
Ó Broin scooped 10% of first preferences in 2019 and him jumping ship to the Social Democrats can be considered something of a coup for the party.
There is little question of Ó Broin being re-elected, but the question remains if there is enough in the tank to get his running mate Lynn Tierney elected alongside him.
That may prove surprisingly easy for the Social Democrats.
A good performance for the Social Democrats in June is easy; target Green voters from 2019 who regret their vote but would never vote for Sinn Féin or Labour.
Peter Kavanagh was elected for the Greens in 2019 and was one of the more high-profile wins for the Greens on the day, but left the party and resigned from his seat.
Kavanagh became one of the most prominent voices within the Greens who protested their involvement in coalition (but for what it’s worth, took up a job in Catherine Martin’s department last year) so this infighting and drama is not a good look for the Greens.
Laura Donaghy has served in Kavanagh’s seat since being co-opted in October 2022, and just like we said last week, the Green voting coalition that delivered victory in 2019 and 2020 is fractured enough that a smaller party like the Social Democrats can hoover up frustrated progressives.
Independent Councillor Francis Timmons is also well-placed to secure re-election, because as we have stated before, being an incumbent Independent in an election is a strong place to be in.
Being able to draw support from across the political spectrum and gaining a reputation as a problem-solver will benefit Timmons heading into June.
A smattering of other fringe parties such as the Workers’ Party, right-wing nationalist parties and independent candidates are expected to run, but considering the major parties are all targeting the constituency it is likely the minor candidates lose out.
An interesting late wrinkle in the race is Independent Ireland announcing they will be standing a candidate in Clondalkin.
Local resident Linda de Courcy will be running for the party, and is running on a platform of opposing recent plans to pedestrianise parts of the village.
The party has been more successful than other right-wing parties in actually securing candidates and getting defections in recent weeks – it has 3 TDs in the Dáil and a dozen councillors nationwide – but there is no telling how they will do in Dublin.
Smaller parties like these tend to do best in 7-seaters, but with the ballot already crowded enough as it is they are likely to be squeezed out.
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Don’t take it for granted!