Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down the various constituencies covered by the West edition of the Northside People.
We have exhausted the constituencies covered by Dublin City Council, and we will now be shifting our focus to the fine folks in Fingal County Council.
The people of Fingal elect 40 Councillors to represent them, and we begin our trip around West Dublin with the constituency of Blanchardstown–Mulhuddart.
The constituency saw a turnout of just 30% the last time the residents went to the polls.
Voter turnout for local elections is usually poor and is defined by voter apathy, but when only 3 in 10 show up to the ballot, something has gone amiss.
The people of Mulhuddart had their own constituency in 2014, and was then joined up with Blanchardstown in 2019.
However, you can write this constituency off at your own peril; there is plenty of drama to go around in this 5-seater.
The departure of Fine Gael Councillor Punam Rane for Kimmage-Rathmines means that the race has been shaken up quite considerably.
Last time out, Rane secured 11% in first preferences.
While using 2019 vote counts to ascertain how voters will vote in June 2024 comes with a major health warning, it is not unfeasible to suggest that around 10% of the vote is up for grabs for a new Fine Gael candidate.
Last time out, Rane secured 11% in first preferences, taking a good chunk of her personal vote with her.
Steve O’Reilly was co-opted onto Fingal County Council in February in Rane’s place and has since made himself known to voters; being introduced to voters 4 months out from an election is a tall order but O’Reilly appears to be handling it well.
With this constituency serving as part of former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s own constituency of Dublin West, the Fine Gael candidate should have the party infrastructure rowing in behind them.
Readers of this series will notice a pattern of Fianna Fáil taking the local elections very seriously and getting their affairs in order, and to further illustrate the point, the party selected their two candidates last July.
The secret to a good local election campaign isn’t hard; select early, and build up word of mouth during the winter months.
Fianna Fáil is doing just that, with incumbent Councillor JK Onwumereh and Lorna Nolan headlining their ticket. Nolan will look to make it 3rd time lucky in her bid for a seat on Fingal County Council, having previously run as an Independent candidate in 2014 and 2019.
Dublin West is one of the more interesting Dáil constituencies in terms of make-up; it elected a Sinn Féin candidate on the first count in 2020, and the other 3 elected candidates are now Government ministers.
Since then, Dublin West has learned it will elect an extra TD at the next general election, and the rapid population growth in the area should, in theory, help the low turnout problem.
Fianna Fáil is represented by Jack Chambers and with a well-oiled machine such as Fianna Fáil, there is every chance the party elects two candidates in June.
That is easier said than done, however, and Sinn Féin running three candidates is the headline event here.
In 2019, left-of-centre parties did well in this constituency.
Labour’s Mary Elizabeth McCamley (who is running again this year) received just under 18% of first preferences last time and topped the poll, while Solidarity’s John Burtchaell scooped 10.7% of first preferences.
Sinn Féin themselves took 12.2% on that occasion, but if you dig deeper, there is reason to believe they could get their trio elected.
At a national level, we have seen that Sinn Féin has significantly eaten into what remains of Labour’s support, and to a lesser extent, has made inroads with Solidarity-People Before Profit’s voter base too.
It can be surmised that Sinn Féin smells blood in the water, or in less dramatic terms, has etched out a healthy chunk of left-leaning voters that could be enough to get three candidates elected in one constituency.
It is worth noting that Dublin West TD Paul Donnelly went from a Councillor from Mulhuddart in 2014 to a TD in 2020.
Applying national polling trends to local elections isn’t advisable, but there is evidently enough confidence within Sinn Féin to run the incumbent Breda Hanaphy, first-timer Louise Kavanagh and the returning Damien Bissett.
A common refrain in Irish politics is someone who narrowly missed out on their first go at election ends up getting elected at the 2nd time of asking, and that may well happen here.
The Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart area is one of Solidarity-People Before Profit’s strongest, and it would be unwise to rule out John Burtchaell.
The Socialist Councillor took just over 10% of first preferences in 2019, and his stature has only grown since then.
Burtchaell works alongside former TD Ruth Coppinger, and while Coppinger herself may not hold elected office anymore, the gravitas that comes with working alongside a TD is a boon for any candidate, left or right.
When we broke down this constituency in January we noted that Sinn Féin will most likely eat into what remains of Labour’s support, but it may have lost ground to People Before Profit/Solidarity.
Recent polling woes for Sinn Féin and sustained attacks from the Irish left over Gaza, immigration and u-turning on promises to re-run the March referendums with more progressive wording could pose a headache for Sinn Féin here, and Solidarity are likely to be the main beneficiaries in a heavily left-leaning area.
Aontú put in a respectable showing in 2019, with their candidate Sinéad Moore failing to get elected but taking home 6% of first preferences.
The path for Aontú to take a seat here is fairly difficult, but not impossible, as the right candidate, voter turnout, and siphoning off enough votes from Independent candidates could be enough to take a seat for them.
The combined Independent candidate votes in the last election came to 16.6%, meaning there is a strong well of voters up for grabs.
Aontú will be running Robbie Loughlin in the seat in June.
Judging how Aontú could perform on election day is difficult given the sample size with just the 2019 locals and 2020 general election to go by.
Aontú has made no secret that they want to attract socially conservative voters from the likes of Sinn Féin (that, after all, is their raison d’etre) so a decent showing here could show that Peadar Tóibín’s experiment is working.
The party is typically seen as a rural party, so a victory in an urban constituency such as this would be a vindication of Tóibín.
The Green Party will be running Oisín Ó hAlmhain in the seat, with the party likely to benefit from the nearby Roderic O’Gorman’s presence.
Social Democrats will be contending the seat for the first time in the form of Meakstown resident Neal Dowling.
Dowling said he would fight for resources for Meakstown if he is elected, saying that Fingal County Council has left the area in the dark for too long.
A resonant hyper-local could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Sockies.
There is plenty to play for in this part of Dublin.