The Metrolink could end up costing more than €23 billion euro, it has been revealed.
A new estimate, commissioned by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, found that the 2025 cost of building the much-delayed Metrolink has ballooned from the 2021 estimate of €7.1 billion and €12.2 billion.
Early 2024 was dominated by discussion about the pros and cons of the Metrolink, and the hiring of Malahide’s Darragh O’Brien as Minister for Transport in recent weeks has now put the onus on the new government to deliver a major infrastructure project.
During the general election campaign, calls were made by opposition parties to use the €13 billion Apple windfall tax and Ireland’s budget surplus to fund the construction of the Metrolink.
The document reports that construction costs have increased 30% since the report was commissioned in 2021.
The skyrocketing costs of the project can be attributed to a number of factors, namely inflation increasing in real terms since the 2021 report and changing economic circumstances, such as the cost of steel rising as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing German economic recession.
When the Metrolink was first proposed in late 2001, the cost was a modest €2.5 billion, or €500 million more than the final bill for the National Children’s Hospital.
The Metrolink price tag ballooning to 3.9% of Ireland’s nominal GDP has raised eyebrows from former Tánaiste Michael McDowell.
Speaking on Newstalk, the independent Senator noted that the Elizabeth Line in London, which covers a greater distance than the Metrolink, ended up costing less than the Metrolink.
For a frame of reference, the Elizabeth Line was given the go-ahead in 2007, construction began in 2009, and began running in 2022, taking the lifetime of four British governments to get over the line.
The Metrolink, by comparison, was first proposed during Bertie Ahern’s first term as Taoiseach, meaning that six governments have come and gone without work beginning on the Metrolink.
McDowell expressed amusement that the costs for the Metrolink “without a shovel being placed in the ground” and the Metrolink itself merely existing as a design document.
McDowell said that the €23 billion price tag has “cannibalised” the majority of capital funding for major infrastructure projects.
“We’re choosing not to extend the Luas system right across Dublin – which we could do for that kind of money,” he said.
“We are deciding to pour a huge amount of money into one line which goes from Swords to Dublin Airport to the city centre and ends up in a back road in Ranelagh,” he remarked.
Under the current plans for the Metrolink, which are subject to change, the proposed route will start at the Estuary station in Swords before taking in Seatown, Swords Central and Fosterstown before serving Dublin Airport itself.
Following on from Dublin Airport, the line will travel down to Northwood, Ballymun, Griffith Avenue, Glasnevin, the Mater and onto O’Connell Street before heading Southside.
Transport Infrastructure Ireland told last year’s hearings that traffic congestion will cost Ireland €2 billion per year over the next decade if the Metrolink is not built. It is estimated that the Metrolink will be able to carry 21,000 passengers per hour, helping significantly reduce congestion in Dublin.
MetroLink Project Director Aidan Foley cited statistics from 2021, which saw Dublin ranked as the 35th most congested city in the world.
Foley told the hearing that a single Dublin commuter will, on average, spend over 213 hours a year stuck in traffic, or just shy of 9 days and that the Metrolink would help ease traffic congestion in Dublin.
Fine Gael MEP Regina Doherty proposed that European Union funding could play a part in paying for the Metrolink, noting last year that Ireland is a net contributor to the EU budget and should get something in return.
The Metrolink project secured €500 million in European Investment Bank funding in the 2000s before it was put on ice following the 2008 economic crash.
“At present, Dublin is one of the very few EU capitals without a rail link to the airport, the project has already taken too long to get to this stage, and there is a significant financial commitment involved from the taxpayer,” she said.
Minister O’Brien’s fellow Dublin Fingal East TD Duncan Smith said that government inaction on the Metrolink project is “not good enough.”
The Labour TD said “over the term of the next government, the people of Fingal and the north city, workers and users of the Airport need to see a contract awarded, a tunnelling machine in the ground, and an ambitious timetable to get this essential underground rail link opened as early as possible in the next decade.”
Prominent environmentalist Duncan Stewart said late last year that airlines should be the ones who foot the bill for the Metrolink as the service is obstinately being built at their behest.
Stewart said the Metrolink project would generate major carbon emissions during the construction process and require the use of carbon-intensive materials such as steel and concrete, along with high energy consumption bore the tunnel itself.
Citing an international study that compared the environmental impact of different rail routes, it was noted that underground rail tunnels generate 27 times as much carbon emissions compared to rail lines that are above ground.
Stewart told the Metrolink hearings last year, “this project should be withdrawn at this stage and redesigned.”