Labour councillor Robert O’Donoghue will run for the party in the constituency of Dublin Fingal West.
As reported last week, Labour’s Dublin Fingal TD Duncan Smith will be running in the newly-created Dublin Fingal East which contains his stronghold of Swords.
Dublin Fingal West contains Rush, Lusk, Skerries, and Balbriggan among its major settlements, with O’Donoghue himself serving as a councillor for the Rush-Lusk era.
The new constituencies were the lynchpins of Labour’s electoral comeback in June, with five of their seven seats on Fingal County Council coming from Fingal East and West.
Ever since being co-opted onto Fingal County Council in 2018, O’Donoghue has topped the poll in Rush-Lusk twice, being elected on the first count in 2019 and repeating the feat in June.
O’Donoghue’s June performance saw him elected with 25.9% of first preferences, an increase from his 18.6% share in 2019.
Labour’s success in Rush-Lusk didn’t end with O’Donoghue, with running mate Corina Johnston who fell short of winning a seat in 2019 with her 7% of first preferences, winning a seat after doubling her vote share to 14%.
Dublin Fingal West contains some of Labour’s strongest areas at a local level, with Rush-Lusk seeing Labour pick up 39.9% of first preferences, and former TD and councillor Brendan Ryan winning a seat with 14.4% of votes in Balbriggan.
O’Donoghue remarked he was “signing my life away for the second time in six months” when posting about his candidacy on Instagram, but added, “sure, I’ll give it me best!”.
“I’m really proud to be selected to run in the general election whether it’s October, November, December, January, February or March” he posted, with an accompanying shrugging emoji.
The election race in Dublin Fingal West and East will be decided by which of the constituencies Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly runs in.
O’Reilly, who topped the poll in Dublin Fingal in 2020, has a constituency office in both Swords and Balbriggan.
Owing to the three-seater nature of the new constituencies, O’Reilly is almost nailed-on to win re-election in whichever constituency she runs in based on her local two general election performances.
Should she run in Dublin Fingal West, it would make her the overwhelming favourite to top the poll but based on June’s local elections, Labour has the stronger political machinery at a local level.
Sinn Féin has one seat in the local electoral areas covered by Dublin Fingal East (Malachy Quinn in Balbriggan) compared to Labour’s three.
Should O’Reilly put herself into Dubin Fingal East, it will mean that four of the current TDs from Dublin Fingal will be fighting for three seats, raising the potential for a showdown between opposition parties and government parties.
With three of Dublin Fingal’s current TDs running in Dublin Fingal East (Farrell, O’Brien and Smith), it is likely that the other two (O’Reilly and Joe O’Brien of the Greens, a former councillor in Balbriggan) run in the West.
June revealed that the Green wave of 2019 and 2020 has subsided, mostly to Labour and the Social Democrats’ gain.
Joe O’Brien won the 2019 by-election in Dublin Fingal and finished 2nd behind O’Reilly in the 2020 general election, but local results for the Greens in June, as well as the move to a 3-seater, could put O’Brien’s seat in danger.
The Greens lost the council seat won in Balbriggan by O’Brien at the 2019 locals, going from 14.6% to 9.6% and received 2.6% in Rush-Lusk, the other local electoral area covered by the new Dublin Fingal West constituency.
Brendan Ryan built on Labour’s strong 2019 showing in Balbriggan, increasing Labour’s share of the vote from 12.2% to 14.4%, while the Green vote collapsing in Rush-Lusk was a factor in Paul Mulville winning re-election for the Social Democrats.
With June now in the rear-view window, the Irish political scene now has its eyes on what is sure to be a fast and frantic winter.