Good day, agents.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is trying to understand what’s going on in June’s local elections.
You will come up against a varied cast of characters, each one more cunning than the last.
The IMF has prepared this mission briefing that is required reading before you head into the field.
This article will self-destruct in 3, 2, 1…
This year’s local elections are taking place in a wholly unique set of circumstances: they are the prelude to a general election that must happen within the next year, no ifs or buts.
When voters went to the polls in May 2019 the Fine Gael-Independent government (with Fianna Fáil backing) voters knew that a general election had to be called by February of 2021 but as we all know an election ended up being called for the following February instead.
In 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 the local elections were all held at the midpoint of a government’s tenure, but 2024 is being treated as a dress rehearsal for the next general election and a temperature check of how the public is feeling right now.
Independent candidates have been widely tipped to reap the rewards of a frustrated electorate on June 7th which has left establishment parties in something of a panic.
We take a look at what all of the major parties have to win (and lose) at the locals.
Aontú
June briefing: Make inroads with Sinn Féin and independent voters
This year’s slate: 6 Dublin City Council candidates, 4 Fingal County Council candidates, making a bid for Europe
2024 will mark Aontú’s first real test at the local elections after making a decent stab at it in 2019.
In 2019, the party was just a few months old when it faced the electorate for the first time, but now the party has had 5 years to define their identity and what it stands for.
The party hasn’t seen any defections like Independent Ireland who have secured over a dozen defections across Ireland but the party has established itself as Sinn Féin with a distinctive social conservative streak while still being somewhat progressive on economics.
Aontú’s game plan for June appeared to be going swimmingly (hoover up the social conservative vote) but the rise of independent candidates has created a headache for them.
Aontú were riding high after March’s referendums but have since failed to make themselves heard in the pack since then.
If the party were to win seats in Dublin it would be a case of the party parking a tank on the lawn but the party’s real success will come outside the Pale.
Fianna Fáil
June briefing: Show that the project is still working
This year’s slate: 19 Dublin City Council candidates, 13 Fingal County Council candidates, hotly-tipped European candidate
2019 and 2020 proved that the Irish public had forgiven Fianna Fáil for the 2008 economic crash.
The party became the biggest party on Dublin City Council and Fingal County Council in 2019, foreshadowing their return to the Taoiseach’s office the following year.
After the 2011 electoral massacre, Fianna Fáil built itself back up and reestablished itself as the catch-all party for everyone.
Recent polling indicates they will perform slightly worse than they did in 2019 and are losing votes to Sinn Féin (which we will cover later) but June is still on track to be a respectable outing for the party.
Fianna Fáil councillors have an ungodly ability to command strong personal votes (it’s one of the non-negotiable laws of the universe) so that will be their saving grace as far as their Dublin electoral race is concerned.
It has become apparent that the values of a Fianna Fáiler based in Dublin is drastically different to what its rural voter base wants.
Fianna Fáil European candidates in the Midlands calling for a crackdown on immigration doesn’t exactly line up with the current Fianna Fáil Lord Mayor of Dublin pushing hard to make Dublin an autism-friendly capital city and a City Of Kindness.
Barry Andrews is sure to put in a strong showing for the party on the European front with polling indicating he is challenging Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan for top spot: a poll-topping performance in Europe would be a coup in of itself.
Fine Gael
June briefing: Exploit Simon Harris’ honeymoon period
This year’s slate: 16 candidates on Dublin City Council, 9 candidates on Fingal County Council, gunning for Europe
Leo Varadkar’s surprise resignation in March ended up being a major shake-up for the locals.
Ever since Simon Harris took over in April the party has experienced a modest bump in the polls.
The party can claim credit for recognising Palestine, and Harris holding his own against Mary Lou McDonald in Dáil debates projects an image of a party that won’t go down without a fight.
Critics point to homelessness rising to a record high under their watch, their weakening of local democracy directly feeding into the housing crisis and a tough-on-crime posturing that recalls the worst of the Tories, but by and large, the public appears to tolerate Fine Gael these days.
The party adopting a slightly more hardline stance on immigration can be hand-waved by the party as merely giving the people what they want and will hold opinion polls up like a vampire holding up their cape.
Senator Regina Doherty is also in the mix to retain Fine Gael’s European seat and looks well-placed to pick up from where Frances Fitzgerald left off.
A strong performance on June 7th could give Harris the impetus to call a general election for later this year while the going is good; if Fine Gael has a good day and Fianna Fáil slump, Harris might pull the trigger.
Green Party
June briefing: Stop the 2019 and 2020 voter base from fracturing
This year’s slate: Running a candidate in each constituency on Dublin City and Fingal County Council, hanging on for life in Europe
The Greens were the unqualified success story of 2019 with Ciáran Cuffe topping the polls in the European race and becoming the 2nd largest party on Dublin City Council.
The Greens met the climate moment head-on in 2019 and found themselves in tune with the electorate for the first time in a decade.
Since then, a return to government has seen the party struggle on occasion to get their policies across but has seen more success at a local level.
June 7th will be a tricky day for the party; they are very unlikely to top their high 2019 watermark and have to contend with their voter base splitting into different directions.
In 2019, the Greens built a strong voter base of students, eco-socialists, commuters, climate-conscious voters, yuppies on bikes, people who own tote bags, Letterboxd users, and in some cases, were a straight protest vote against the government because Sinn Féin were a mess in 2019.
Since then, the Social Democrats have become the hot new thing among the young, progressive and educated voter bloc, Sinn Féin have managed to get their act together while Labour/People Before Profit have made strides in appealing to the left-liberal and green left bloc respectively.
Current polling indicates Ciáran Cuffe will be fighting for a 3rd or even 4th place finish in Europe, while the gains made by the party in the likes of Castleknock, Ongar and Swords over the years are likely to evaporate.
Eagle-eyed readers would be well-advised to watch where the Green transfers are distributed on June 7th, you might just get a little preview of the next general election.
Labour
June briefing: Tell people we are still here and still relevant
This year’s slate: 13 candidates on Dublin City Council, 8 candidates on Fingal County Council, in the mix for Europe
Whisper it quietly, but there still might be life in Labour yet.
While others have written about the party facing an existential crisis after losing working-class voters to Sinn Féin, more left-minded voters to People Before Profit and the urban left-liberal vote to the Greens and Soc Dems, Labour has managed to carve out its own niche in the Irish political scape.
In fact, the latter voting bloc has been ever so quietly moving back in Labour’s direction and that might end up being their saving grace.
Labour are on track to perform roughly the same or slightly better than their 2019 haul (which to be clear wasn’t that amazing to begin with) but that provides a solid base to operate from for the next five years.
If the party can convince the electorate that Sinn Féin aren’t ready for prime time and woo back voters who have bolted for the Soc Dems or People Before Profit they could be onto something.
The party of Connolly they most assuredly they are not, but Labour heads into June’s election showdown with a quiet confidence.
Polling has Aodhán Ó Ríordáin in contention for the final European seat, with a victory there representing a massive turnaround in Labour’s fortunes.
The classic centre-left party has taken a battering across Europe in recent years; could Labour buck the trend?
Sinn Féin
June’s briefing: Prove we are ready to run the country
This year’s slate: 30 candidates on Dublin City Council, 15 candidates on Finga County Council, battling for top slot in Europe
This should have been Sinn Féin’s big audition for the general election; after years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dominance and a cost-of-living and housing crisis that hasn’t gone away, this should have been Sinn Féin’s shot at the big time.
It hasn’t quite panned out that way.
Even this time last year the idea of Sinn Féin blowing a 10% lead in polling seemed absurd which means one thing; the party did something stupid and/or funny.
Sunday Business Post’s analysis of the most recent Red C poll shows that Sinn Féin has lost massive chunks of the working-class voter base over the immigration issue and the party has made considerable efforts to win that bloc back to no avail.
In a bid to win back the working-class with controversial rhetoric on immigration, the party has annoyed the progressive voter base they have tried so hard to maintain since 2020.
In a bid to overtake Fianna Fáil, the party has arguably become it in the process.
There is some wisdom in becoming a big tent party – the SNP did this in Scotland to great success, until it fell apart – but changing gears in an election year has seemingly backfired on Sinn Féin.
A wise strategist would have said to go for the jugular and take out Labour, the Greens and People Before Profit.
By attempting to ape Fianna Fáil, they have created an unnecessary vacuum to their left.
By changing so drastically on the immigration issue they have annoyed people who would never vote for them to begin with, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters look on in bemusement and the left-liberal base has jumped ship to the Soc Dems, PBP and Labour.
Going off 2020’s results it became clear that Sinn Féin had the bones of an election-winning voter coalition but it needed to significant inroads in Dublin to become the biggest party in the Dáil and the biggest party on Dublin City Council.
The latter is likely to happen, if only because of the sheer amount of candidates the party are running, but it will be a pyrrhic victory.
June will be more successful than 2019 was for Sinn Féin (because frankly, anything would be better than the 2019 locals for Sinn Féin) but it won’t be the decisive victory they were expected to produce.
Lynn Boylan is certainly assured of winning back her European seat and the party is also on track to win the first-ever directly-elected mayor contest in Limerick which will show that the project is winning over the masses, but will they stick around?
Social Democrats:
June’s briefing: Establish ourselves as a credible progressive force
This year’s slate: 13 candidates on Dublin City Council, running candidates everywhere in Dublin 15, decent shot at Europe
The Social Democrats have a strong chance of being one of June’s big winners.
The Green vote from 2019 is very much up for grabs, while the party will continue in its quest to win over Labour faithful.
If the party can convince people that Sinn Féin aren’t the great white hope of progressive politics in Ireland, that would be the cherry on top.
2019 saw the party get their first candidates elected onto Dublin City Council (5) and Fingal County Council (2) which serves as a solid base for the party to build on.
The party has wisely used party leader Holly Cairns’ high personal popularity and the leader has been spotted making the rounds on the Northside in recent weeks.
Northsider Cian O’Callaghan is serving as the party’s director of elections which sweetens the pot for the purple team.
Their European hopes are perhaps not as strong as they’d like it to be but there is still every chance the party ends up a major driving force on the next term of Dublin City Council.
People Before Profit/Solidarity:
June’s briefing: Send a message to the establishment
This year’s slate: Running in each Dublin City Council constituency, 6 candidates on Fingal County Council, slim European hopes
While there are dime-a-dozen parties on the Irish left, People Before Profit/Solidarity carry the most weight.
After the 2020 general election, there were fears that the party were going to be squeezed out by Sinn Féin; now it appears the shoe is on the other foot.
Ongoing events in the Middle East have been mana from heaven for the People Before Profit cause, and Sinn Féin’s repeated own goals on social issues have also boosted the party.
2019 was a difficult year for alliance as the green brand of politics won the day.
2024 could be the year that the party proves they are here to stay.
Back in 2014 the party brought anti-austerity politics to the forefront and have since shifted to whatever the main issues are facing the left at that particular moment.
The right are likely to be nullified by the three major parties using similar language to them or even co-opting some of their policies; this has left a gap for the likes of PBP to thrive on the left flank.
Electioneering and the far-left aren’t usually thought of as stablemates but these are a unique set of local elections.
In polling terms, independents/others are a broad church ranging from fringe far-right internet groups to smaller left-wing parties (as well as independents on the left and right) but People Before Profit have proven time and time again they are able to punch above their weight class.
They won’t be challenging the big three anytime soon, and the idea of them becoming direct competitors with the likes of Labour or the Greens is a distinct long-shot, but there is scope for the alliance to hold onto what they have and maybe claim a new scalp or two along the way.