As far as Dublin’s constituencies go, Dublin West is among the most sprawling.
Taking in Ashtown, Blanchardstown, Castleknock, Clonsilla, and Ongar, the constituency has been bumped up to a five-seater for the general election to account for the rising population the area has seen in recent years.
Figuring out who the poll-topper isn’t as straightforward as it appears on the surface; there is no question that Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly will win re-election but it won’t be with 28.6% of the vote he secured last time.
Donnelly’s win in 2020 came as a result of many disparate elements coming together to vote for Sinn Féin; old-school leftists who historically voted for Ruth Coppigner or Joe Higgins bolted for Sinn Féin, younger voters who wanted change and as we’ve surmised, enjoyed a massive crossover from former Fianna Fáil or independent voters who wanted something new.
Coppinger’s victory in Castleknock in June, as well as John Burtchaell winning a seat in Blanchardstown points to clear left-wing dissatisfaction with Sinn Féin.
The addition of former Anti Austerity Alliance councillor turned independent Tania Doyle, former Sinn Féin councillor Natalie Tracy (now running as an independent) and Social Democrats candidate Ellen Murphy into the mix means that Sinn Féin are now under serious threat from their left flank.
Coppinger has the strongest chance of winning back her seat among the left flank; her profile as a former TD and June re-election to Fingal County Council, on top of general left-wing annoyance with Sinn Féin means that Coppinger has a distinct possibility of returning to the Dáil.
The vacuum to Donnelly’s left might present a chance for Jack Chambers to top the poll; Chambers is serving as director of elections for Fianna Fáil having done the same for the party in June (his promotion to Minister for Finance was possibly a reward for his hard work) coupled with Chambers’ profile growing hugely since 2020.
Fianna Fáil did decently at a local level in June but Chambers’ high national profile makes him topping the poll a distinct possibility.
It never hurts a candidate to be the face of a fairly generous Budget that is still fresh in voters’ minds.
Fianna Fáil has taken a small gamble by bringing in Lorna Nolan as a running mate (Nolan is without a council seat) but the virtue of having two candidates on the ballot is a matter of keeping up appearances.
Fine Gael has shown there is life after Leo Varadkar, and his 2020 running mate Emer Currie, now a Senator, is pretty much a lock to win a Dáil seat.
Fine Gael was the strongest party in West Dublin in June and started the campaign as slight favourites; it isn’t terribly interesting to tell you that Fine Gael will win a seat here.
In any case, Currie’s profile as a Senator (and daughter of Fine Gael heavyweight Austin who was a local TD between 1989 and 2002) means that Currie will go one better than her 2020 performance when she failed to be elected alongside Leo Varadkar.
Currie’s performance in 2020 saw her receive just 226 fewer first preferences than former Labour Tánaiste Joan Burton (in numerical terms, it was 4.8% versus 4.3%) which is a solid base for her to build on in a follow-up election campaign.
Currie was a councillor when she was brought in as Varadkar’s running mate in 2020 and now boasts the profile of a Senator; she may well start picking out the lamp on her Dáil office desk now.
The election is likely to be a baptism of fire for Roderic O’Gorman as leader of the Greens but it is unlikely he will be among the Green casualties on the day.
Feljin Jose received the most first preferences in Cabra-Glasnevin in June which should offer a reprieve for O’Gorman and proof that the Green message is still connecting with voters.
O’Gorman’s summer election as leader of the Greens very much positions the Greens as a party for Dublin middle-class, progressive types with an environmentalist streak, and his desire to work closely with Labour and the Social Democrats should also win him crossover support from the centre-left.
The one area of concern for O’Gorman is that their share of the vote dropped from 27.2% in 2019, when O’Gorman won in Castleknock, to 7.1% in June just gone.
In Ongar, where the party won a seat with 8.7% of the vote in 2019, that same share of the vote went down to 2.3%.
The Greens had a shorter distance to fall in June by virtue of running fewer candidates but O’Gorman losing 20% of the vote in his backyard could make him vulnerable and offer up a path to victory for Labour’s John Walsh.
Joan Burton losing her seat in Dublin West in 2020 while Sinn Féin stormed home was a sign of just how much the party’s fortunes slumped during that time.
Specifically, Labour voters abandoning them in a heavy working-class area for Sinn Féin pointed to a potential realignment on the Irish left.
Ivana Bacik’s election as leader of the party in early 2022 also indicated that the party of Connolly was now a party for disaffected middle-class progressives.
Luckily for Labour, there is now a market for that brand of vote.
The middle-class progressive vote was a major factor in the Greens’ success in 2020 (with it also being a small boost for Sinn Féin) but woes with those two parties have led to people potentially giving Labour a second look.
Labour will be competing with the Social Democrats in a lot of seats across Dublin, but Labour has the edge as far as this race is concerned.
Walsh has been tasked with winning back the seat for the party, and the Castleknock man who lectures in Trinity has proven himself a strong vote winner.
While Walsh’s first bid for a council seat ended in failure with 5.5% of the vote in 2014 amid a nationwide backlash against the party, his 2019 share of the vote rose to 9% and won the fifth seat in the constituency.
In the locals just gone, Walsh finished 2nd in Castleknock with a healthy 13.7% of first preferences.
Mary McCamley’s poll-topping performance in Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart shows that even with a massively depressed turnout, Labour was able to win over the electorate in a working-class area previously thought to be lost to them.
A weak performance in Ongar and not being able to win a seat in Cabra-Glasnevin shows some signs of vulnerability (1.8% and 9.2% split between two candidates) but there are clear signs of life for Labour in this part of Dublin and they are in a much better position than 2020.
The Social Democrats are at a disadvantage; Cat O’Driscoll’s victory in Cabra-Glasnevin was the only win for the party locally, and their general election candidate Ellen Murphy didn’t win a seat in Ongar.
As far as the Social Democrats go, the brand isn’t strong enough in Dublin West to seriously put themselves in contention (in 2020, they received 1.9% of first preferences) but it’s never any harm for a party to build a base for future success.
It is possible that the Social Democrats catch fire on the campaign trail (although the same could be said for any party) and the brand supercharges Murphy just like how the Sinn Féin brand supercharged Sinn Féin candidates nationwide in 2020 but from an outsider’s perspective it is hard to see the Sockies making a breakthrough here.
Aontú’s Ellen Troy is the wildcard in the pack; the party’s first two seats in Dublin came in Castleknock and Ongar in June just gone.
The party, which had just been formed in 2019, has somewhat found its voice as a party for former Sinn Féin and Labour voters who like it when the state funds services and backs unions, but aren’t so fond of abortions and pronouns.
Ellen Troy is Aontú’s pick for the party, with her victory in Castleknock at the expense of Sinn Féin demonstrating the party’s ability to build a winning voter base in a relatively short space of time.
Gerard Sheehan’s victory in Ongar was notable as he won a seat at the expense of Labour, two Sinn Féin candidates, Ellen Murphy of the Social Democrats, the Greens and candidates from Solidarity and People Before Profit.
Aontú correctly identified that they had a decent set of election results locally in 2019 and used that five-year gap to win two seats in what should be a Sinn Féin stronghold.
Whether that translates to general election success is another question (Troy, for what it’s worth, is quite popular in Castleknock) but if they last long enough to start getting transfers off Sinn Féin then the race could become quite interesting indeed.
The true wildcard in the race, however, could be independent councillor Tania Doyle.
Doyle topped the poll in Ongar in June with 24% of first preferences, or just over 2,000 votes in numerical terms.
Should Doyle receive 2,000 first preferences in a general election that would put her in with a shout.
Independent candidates are likely to be the success story of the election campaign and Dublin West is no exception.
In Cabra-Glasnevin, left-wing independent councillor Cieran Perry actually reached the quota before Feljin Jose did as he was the main beneficiary of strong support from left-wing candidates.
Doyle’s appeal to the left, as well as the general advantage that independent candidates will have in this general election, could put her in the running.
Independent candidates are able to appeal to everyone across the political spectrum, so if Doyle manages to stay ahead of the back and starts receiving transfers it could prove to be a dark horse victory in this part of West Dublin.