Blackrock and Stillorgan are the only constituencies on Dún Laoghaire council that are 6-seaters; the rest are all 7-seaters.
Apart from a bit of trivia they can put on their dating profile, this also somewhat changes the dynamics of a local election race
Stillorgan has been a 6-seater ever since the 2014 locals and has usually been a stronghold for government parties.
In 2014, the constituency returned two Fianna Fáil and two Fine Gael candidates (one of those candidates became TD Josepha Madigan) while 2019 nearly saw a repeat with Fianna Fáil narrowly losing out on the 2nd seat.
Fine Gael’s Barry Saul has topped the poll with over 20% in each of his last three elections, and if someone at Fine Gael HQ hasn’t mocked up a Better Call Saul election poster or merchandise we will be shocked.
Saul will look to get elected on the first count for the 4th straight election – an unheard-of feat in Irish politics.
Fine Gael got three candidates elected in 2019; Maeve O’Connell put up an impressive showing and will be running again on June 7th while John Kennedy also got over the line thanks to transfers.
The task for Fine Gael is simple; complete the hat-trick again.
Fine Gael running three candidates put the squeeze on Fianna Fáil in 2019 and a similar situation might happen again on June 7th.
Fianna Fáil are persisting with their two candidate policy; Liam Dockery and Emer O’Neill will be running for the party here.
Fianna Fáil have always gotten a candidate elected in Stillorgan; even in 2009, right after the economic crash, they still got a candidate a seat.
The question is which candidate is successful for Fianna Fáil.
Dockrey is best-placed to win the seat considering his decent performance in 2019 where he secured 8.6% of first preferences.
In recent weeks it has become apparent that independent candidates are going to have a major impact on the local elections, be they left, right, or indifferent, and Stillorgan already has an independent councillor in its repertoire.
Deirdre Donnelly is going for her 3rd term on Dún Laoghaire County Council and looks well-placed to be in the winner’s circle after June 7th.
The independent local election candidate comes in many forms, but Eliza Connolly appears to be a community-focused candidate.
Guessing how independents do is true guesswork, especially if they haven’t run before, but going on the public mood (or to use a more prominent term with today’s youth, “vibes”,) there seems to be an appetite for issues-focused local residents who are free from party affiliation.
Donnelly will most assuredly be in the 6, but Connolly could be the wildcard in the pack.
The other remarkable story of 2019 saw the Greens scooping over 20% of first preferences and being elected alongside Fine Gael’s Saul on the first count.
Eva Dowling delivered the goods for the Greens in 2019 but 2024 will be a real test of their abilities.
Stillorgan had the 2nd-highest turnout of any Dún Laoghaire constituency in 2019 at 49.2% which implies that the Stillorgan electorate are in tune with the moment and likes to keep abreast of political developments.
That is a double-edged sword for a party like the Greens; some voters will see what the Greens have done locally and in government and will be pleased they have delivered exactly what they have asked for, while others will be frustrated at their enabling of a grand coalition and having their demands watered down.
While there has been ample coverage dedicated to a supposed right-wing wave in Ireland at the locals, the most significant impact will come from the left-liberal parties ganging up on the Greens and trying to steal their votes.
The good news for Dowling is that she could lose over half of her 2019 vote and still get comfortably re-elected, but that comes with the expense of totally shifting the race around her.
Going off 2019, Labour received the most transfers following Dowling’s election but it wasn’t enough to get them a seat.
If Labour were to up the first preference votes, they could ride the green wave to nick a seat.
The last Labour candidate to be elected here is current High Court judge Kevin Humphreys who won a seat for the party in 2014.
2019 saw the party lose that seat, mostly at the expense of the Green surge, but perhaps the tables have turned?
Labour will be running Rebekah Fozzard in the seat, a local community activist.
Her election material mentions her roles in local parent teacher organisations as well as her work with the council’s disability and volunteering work.
In the context of a local election it is difficult to tell if people vote for the party or the candidate, but this is a long-winded way of saying Labour have a chance of winning a seat here.
Adding to the Green headache (which is also the name given to when you eat pistachio ice cream too quickly) is the Social Democrats running in the area.
Local man John Hurley will be running for the Soc Dems here, marking their first appearance on the ballot.
The party has worked hard to distinguish itself as a viable progressive alternative to Sinn Féin and attempt to appeal to disenfranchised Green and Labour voters.
A win in this part of Dublin would be a real breakthrough for the party.
Hurley’s CV includes setting up a local Tidy Towns and organising a laptop donation drive for local school children during the Covid-19 pandemic.
There is no real indication of what a good performance for the Soc Dems would entail because this is uncharted territory for the party but there is reason to believe they could be in the mixer.
Sinn Féin, as we have noted in other constituency breakdowns, performed terribly in Dún Laoghaire in 2019 but hardly seems fair to judge the party on those metrics considering how much the party has advanced since then.
Their 2019 performance in Stillorgan had them placing dead last, even behind spoilt ballots.
June 7th is their big audition for their general election aspirations.
At a Dáil level, Stillorgan sits in the Rathdown constituency which has one Green TD (Catherine Martin) and Two Fine Gael TDs.
The Dáil make-up is an important clue in figuring out Stillorgan; it’s relatively socially liberal (like the rest of Dún Laoghaire) but is more interested in the Fine Gael brand of progressive centrism than the left-wing style of calling for radical social change.
Sinn Féin have attempted to thread the needle between the two on the campaign trail in a bid to prepare for the next general election and a place like Stillorgan is a good a place as any to test it out.
Local teacher Sorcha Nic Cormaic is Sinn Féin’s name on the ballot but it’s hard to tell if success for Sinn Féin means doing better than 2019 or winning a seat.
Nic Cormaic was Sinn Féin’s general election candidate in 2020 and was the last candidate eliminated.
Nic Cormaic ended up taking Madigan and Richmond to the final count in 2020 which should be enough to remind voters she has taken on government parties before and did well.
Who Sinn Féin get votes off is difficult to tell – recent weeks indicate they are trying to muscle in on Fianna Fáil’s turf and go for the big tent approach but that has only resulted in the party flatlining in the polls.
As noted, there doesn’t appear to be an appetite for radical left-wing politics in this part of Dublin – at a push, the most extreme ideology this part of Dublin will tolerate is social democracy – so while Sinn Fein’s moderation has had a ruinous effect on the party’s polling it could strangely end up helping them in Stillorgan.