Dublin’s economy continued to grow in the second quarter of the year, but only just, with new figures showing a noticeable slowdown in momentum across the capital’s private sector.
According to the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from S&P Global, business activity in Dublin rose between April and June, but at its slowest pace since 2023.
The headline figure of 52.2, just above the 50 mark that signals growth, suggests a private sector still expanding but starting to lose some of its energy.
One of the more worrying signs was a dip in new orders, which contracted slightly for the first time in over a year.
That figure dropped to 49.9 — a marginal decline, but enough to break a five-quarter run of increases.
Analysts point to uncertainty around shifting US trade policies as one possible reason for the drop in confidence among firms.
By contrast, businesses outside Dublin reported a more upbeat picture.
New orders in the rest of Ireland rose to 53.0, up from 52.7 in the first quarter, suggesting companies beyond the capital are finding steadier demand.
It wasn’t all bad news for Dublin.
All three key sectors — manufacturing, services, and construction — reported growth in the second quarter, though some saw slower progress than earlier in the year.
Manufacturing led the way with a strong bounceback, hitting 54.2 after a contraction in the previous quarter.
Construction also remained robust at 55.8, while the services sector barely stayed in growth territory at 50.3.
Employment also ticked upwards for another quarter, continuing a trend that’s been running since early 2021.
However, the pace of hiring in Dublin was modest — and slightly behind the rest of the country.
Job creation in the capital scored 51.3 on the index, just a notch above the 51.2 seen in Q1, and lower than the 52.2 figure recorded outside Dublin.
Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, described the findings as a “subdued” set of results.
“It was good to see a return to growth in manufacturing production in Dublin,” he said. “But with little movement in new orders, firms only increased output and employment modestly.
“With US trade policy potentially becoming clearer soon, the Dublin private sector is at something of a crossroads as we enter the second half of the year.
“We will hopefully see a demand environment more conducive to growth in Q3.”
Whether that materialises or not, it’s clear that for now, the Dublin economy is keeping its head above water, but only just.